US presidential hopefuls have a struggle ahead
The big takeaway from the Iowa caucus is that there is no telling how the US presidential election will play out. Stakeholders may have their favourites and newspapers may run polarising headlines, but on the ground the situation remains a lot more fluid than what political pundits say. On Monday, the biggest surprise came from Mr Donald Trump suffering an first electoral defeat, even though the pre-poll numbers had him at a considerable lead. Notably, when Mr Trump joined the race, few were willing to take his candidacy seriously, but in the months since then, he has cashed in on his celebrity-identity to become a serious player. So much so, that he even emerged as the Republican frontrunner in recent weeks, and in some local polls performed better than the Democratic Party's Hillary Clinton, by far the strongest establishment candidate. But the Iowa caucus seems to have turned the trend with Mr Trump receiving 24 per cent of the votes, second to Mr Ted Cruz's 28 per cent. The latter's superior showing, better than the pre-poll expectation, has come as a surprise, but proves that he has the operational werewithal to fight a sustained campaign. In contrast, Mr Trump's performance raises questions about how he will be able to convert his TV popularity into votes. The other ‘winner' from the Iowa caucus Republican camp was Mr Marco Rubio though he came in third, with 23 per cent of the votes, he performed better than predicted.
In the Democratic camp, Ms Clinton emerged at the top of the pile but only just about. Mr Bernie Sanders was close on her heels and, in fact, the two were tied till the very end. That the Iowa caucus would be a tough one for Ms Clinton was expected, as she had also performed poorly in this State in 2008. Still, the fact that Mr Sanders, a little-known politician with socialist leanings, would give her such tough competition, shows how ideologically fractured the Democratic party has become. Voters, it seems, are yet to make up their mind about whether to go with the Obama legacy that Ms Clinton has embraced or push for more radical reforms of the sort that Mr Sanders is espousing.
looking ahead, even as the Iowa caucus results are analysed threadbare for early insights into who will win the party nominations, it's important to take a cautionary approach: Every State is different and every candidate has his or her vote-bank. Also, not every candidate has the same kind of ground-level campaign presence in every State. Hence, Mr Sanders may just win the next election at New Hampshire, since he is from the neighbouring State of Vermont, but Ms Clinton is expected to cruise through in South Carolina. Similarly, among the Republicans, Mr Cruz, whose campaign is fuelled by evangelical support, will have a tough time in New Hampshire while Mr Rubio, who has more broadbased support within the party, can surge ahead.