What HD Kumaraswamy’s sudden pitch for Rahul as Prime Ministerial candidate instead of Mayawati tells us
Karnataka Chief Minister HD Kumaraswamy, he of tragedy king fame, has just about managed to dry the copious tears he shed a few days ago where he told Janata Dal Secular (JDS) party activists — “my family” — that he feels deep pain in and is miserable as Chief Minister of a rump party propped up by the Congress in the southern State where the BJP emerged as the single largest party after the Assembly poll. Having copped a lot of criticism for whining instead of governing, as it were, Kumaraswamy then spoke of how he was not complaining against the Congress or “media friends who are being unfair to me” but was just unburdening his heart to those closest to him. Fair enough. But what explains his sudden enthusiasm for Rahul Gandhi as the Opposition’s Prime Ministerial candidateIJ At his swearing-in ceremony as Chief Minister, attended by the who’s of who of Opposition leaders, he was rooting for Mayawati as Prime Minister. What’s changedIJ
The short answer to that question is that Kumaraswamy, and there will be others from the Opposition camp who may also speak up in the weeks and months ahead, realises that despite the fact regional parties pushing the federal front idea such as the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and Trinamool Congress (TMC) are expected to win a sizeable number of lok Sabha seats, expecting 1990s-style ‘outside support’ from the Congress as was extended to his father and former Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda may be hoping for too much this time around. The penny also seems to have dropped that these parties do not need the Congress to achieve their electoral goals come 2019. The same is not true of, say, a TRS, BJD or TDP as the Congress still has a significant share of the popular vote in the States of Telangana, Orissa and Andhra Pradesh. Indeed, even the Samajwadi Party-BSP alliance in Uttar Pradesh will need the Congress on board not just because of its albeit now quite tiny support base but also for the optics. The JDS too falls squarely in the category of Congress-aided regional parties for the 2019 General Election and that is the primary cause of the tears that flowed. Interesting times ahead, therefore, as despite the losses the BJP is expected to suffer the Congress cannot hope to get anywhere near the halfway mark, the independent-of-Congress regional parties are going to be distinctly uncomfortable with Rahul as their leader and the Congress remains wary of an independent regional leader being projected as the Opposition’s candidate for the top job.