‘Normal rainfall’ is a misunderstood term
At a time when States like Kerala and Maharashtra are still parched from the worst drought to have hit them in four decades, official forecasts predicting a ‘normal monsoon' for this year come as a relief. Ample rains are crucial for about 55 per cent of India's farmlands which lack irrigation facilities and, therefore, depend heavily on the monsoons — so much so, that it is the amount of rainfall that decides whether the country will be exporting food grains or importing it. Also, a bountiful harvest will go a long way in curbing runaway inflation as well. Agriculture contributes about 15 per cent to India's GDP but employs a disproportionately large section of the population that remains vulnerable to the vagaries of nature. But while the Union Ministry of Earth Science's prediction gives us a reason to cheer, it is also important not to get carried away by the promising prediction as it does not necessarily tell the whole story. In India, ‘normal' or ‘average monsoon' simply means rainfall between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of a 50-year average of 89 cm in the entire four-month rainy season starting June 1. It does not factor in the rainfall distribution pattern and, therefore, it is entirely possible that even with ‘normal rainfall' some parts of the country will suffer from drought. For instance, the annual rainfall last year was only seven per cent less than normal, but many of the western and southern States did not even receive half their share and are yet to recover from that debilitating setback. This year too there is a possibility that even the States of Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu, which ironically are surrounded by forests and hills, may not receive adequate rains, as the Minister of State in the Union Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution KV Thomas cautioned last Thursday.
Apart from distribution, timing of the rains is also an important factor. For example, if the monsoons are delayed, as they have been in recent years, then crop cultivation patterns will be affected even if there is adequate rainfall in the later months. Finally, let us not forget that the relationship between a good monsoon and a good harvest is not always directly proportional. For example, despite several large States being drought-hit last year, the country actually registered an increase in agricultural productivity, partly because the rabi crops benefitted from the late rains, thereby negating some of the damage suffered by the kharif crops. In effect then, India's agricultural scenario is dynamic, complex and the product of many factors — both natural and man-made. To encapsulate it all in one number or statement may be tempting, but the exercise is hardly fruitful. Instead, the focus must be on weaning away Indian agriculture from its over-reliance on the monsoons. Towards that end, water conservation efforts must be pursued on a war-footing — tanks, reservoirs and irrigation canals can help to a large extent.