The Bashar al-Assad regime is facing trouble from a bunch of Western powers and the armed rebels from within. Whatever happens, a prolonged period of uncertainty is a certainty
At least two films on the civil war in Syria are being played at the Toronto International Film Festival. like our own epic on the war with Pakistan, one of them is called Border. like libya, Iraq and Afghanistan in the past, international attention is now riveted on Syria. Experts say had France not intervened, a Taliban regime, the first after Afghanistan, would have been in place in Mali. Syria itself, many fear, is becoming another Afghanistan, a more central safe haven from where terror can be exported — especially after US-led military strikes to punish Syria for the alleged use of chemical weapons are launched.
Most of the last week, I watched from Tel Aviv, Border play out to a swift anti-climax with the Russia-Iran peace plan of putting beyond use the Assad regime’s stockpile of chemical weapons, ostensibly postponing aerial retribution of the Kosovo kind. “Make no mistake”, US President Barack Obama reminded Syria, “the military option is not off the table till the full implementation of the agreement”. Through the peace initiative, Russia not only stole victory from the jaws of diplomatic defeat but also rescued Mr Obama from the embarrassment of a negative vote from Congress on his Red line threat.
For Israel, the removal of chemical weapons from its doorstep means that the stockpile cannot fall into the hands of terrorist groups especially Hezbollah. One hundred and eighty-nine countries have signed and ratified the Chemical Weapons Convention of 1993 with seven states — Angola, North Korea, Egypt, South Sudan and Syria — staying out. Burma and Israel have signed but not ratified the CWC.
But what happens to deterrence and strategic signalling to the six states holding out and Iran which is determined to acquire a nuclear weapon and possibly use itIJ The virtues of deterrence from a limited strike may have to be sacrificed on the altar of political expediency and preventing conflict escalation. The unthinkable US-Iran-Russia cooperation on Syria’s chemical weapons could conceivably lead to an eventual face-saving solution for Iran’s nuclear programme. Even a demonstrative US strike is expected to send the jihadists on a rampage in the region.
Israel destroyed Syria’s nuclear programme four years ago last week and has bombed Syria thrice this year for attempting to transfer quality weapons to Hezbollah which is Israel’s current Red line. Any bombing campaign will endanger the new nuclear reactor of miniature neutron source on the outskirts of Damascus which has one kilogramme — not a large amount —of highly enriched uranium. Still it poses a collateral threat of nuclear radiation.
last week saw the first ever series of suicide attacks in Egypt — two in Sinai and one in Cairo. All this escalation in terrorism is occurring when Syria is slowly dissolving. Two million refugees and 1,20,000 casualties account for nearly one third of the seven million Syrian population that has gone missing.
The war in Syria is not the direct fallout of the Arab Spring but of the peasant revolt resulting from the failure of the wheat crop in the rural areas which forced the mainly Sunni population of the region to converge on the outskirts of Damascus. The who’s who of the fighting forces resembles one-time Afghanistan. On the regime side are the Alawite Army, local militias supporting the Army and the regime; moderate Sunnis and about 5,000 to 10,000 Hezbollah fighters who have joined battle on the express orders of Iran. Tehran’s aid to Damascus totals nearly $17 billion with the Assad regime being one of its key beneficiaries. The 2,00,000 strong Syrian Army is backed by a small Air Force with Russian equipment.
Arrayed against these forces are constituents of the Free Syrian Army — local Islamic militia linked to the Muslim Brotherhood; regime rebels not motivated by religion; and international jihadists linked to Al Qaeda which does not have a military presence as yet. There are reports of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan also being in the fray. Together the opposition has 1,00,000 fighters and among these are 5,000 to 7,000 foreign jihadists from 30 countries, though the majority are Syrians. Nearly 700 of the foreigners come from Europe, mainly the UK, France, Finland, Belgium, Ireland, Denmark and so on.
The rebels are in the rural areas in the north and north-east with the main cities and key road arteries held by regime forces. Small pockets of real estate keep changing hands like the historic Christian town of Maaloola between the roads from Damascus to Homs which altered ownership thrice last week. Jabhat-al Nusra is one of the leading rebel groups fighting around Homs.
The success of regime forces is due to lack of any unity of effort and absence of clear political and military leadership among the opposition. Fighting among the rebels is not uncommon. In the rebel-held areas people are not in favour of sharia’h or any form of Islamic jihad. Druze Christians, Alawites and Kurdish communities are likely to stick to their horses. Syrian society is divided between pro-Assad and anti-Assad groups with majority sitting on the fence. It is to the regime’s credit that no military unit, senior General or Ambassador has defected. All state institutions are intact and loyal to President Bashar al-Assad who enjoys the political, military and financial support of Russia and Iran as well as China’s backing at the UN. At this rate, the war can go on till one side or the other tires out or caves in. The Iran-Iraq war waged for eight years till 1988 and Iraq had used chemical weapons against Iran.
The weapons and logistics supply lines to the rebels are open and uninterruptible. The CIA is known to be coordinating the supply and replenishment of war stores. The US, Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Croatia and other Western and Arab states have joined the covert re-supply chain. Airfields in Turkey and Jordan received 160 flights in January 2013 alone to keep the rebels abundantly supplied with military stores which include Chinese SN6 anti-helicopter missiles. With no decisive victory possible for either side, the following scenarios are possible:
The present strategic and tactical stalemate will continue. Without regime change — minus Mr Assad, a negotiated solution is unlikely
In the event of US military strikes, the civil war will escalate into a broader regional war with spillover of terrorism.
Bifurcation (or trifurcation) a la future Afghanistan.
Two and a half years on, whatever the odds, Syria promises to go the Afghanistan way.