Unseasonal storms are a warning of the perils of global warming and how India will be impacted
There will be much howling about how despite warnings, the sudden dust and thunderstorm that lashed Delhi, Haryana, Rajasthan and western Uttar Pradesh killed, maimed and injured so many people. At the same time, news anchors and commentators are criticising the Indian Meteorological Department for getting the timing wrong. They are wrong on both fronts. On the latter, the fact simply is that while man has developed amazing amounts of computing power to predict weather trends for the next few centuries based on historical data, indeed most of the world’s super-computers are mainly used to process long-term weather trends. Short-term weather forecasting is still a ‘dark art’ and only predictions can be made. A major storm was predicted in northern India after the first storm caught peoples unawares, but even though warnings went out, it was impossible to predict when it would hit. As such, the storm striking on a Sunday, when most people were home, kept the economic impact in check.
But it is the latter point that one must address. India is being struck by more and more extreme weather phenomena and as a result, people will die; no matter how good and advanced the warnings are. Over a 100 people were killed by lightning alone in the last two storms. At the same time, extreme weather conditions will wreak havoc on local, State and the national economy. Make no mistakes, the storm that struck north India on May 13 is a sign of climate change. The deluge that struck Mumbai a decade ago shut the city for a week; the severe storms in Delhi led to the suspension of metro services and huge traffic jams, let alone a huge number of flights were diverted and passengers were stranded. We need to understand the science behind these extreme weather conditions and take steps to correct our emissions which inevitably make matters worse. India has a huge population living in areas that are either low-lying or on floodplains who will be immediately impacted by such weather phenomena. The thought of tens of millions of people displaced by floods and rising sea levels should give our politicians palpitations but unfortunately most of our leaders have little or no understanding of science as their daily pronouncements indicate. That said, some steps like correcting high-carbon fuel sources in the kitchen through cooking gas distribution is a welcome start, but petcoke remains a huge pollutant. Not only will millions be displaced, it is almost certain that thousands will die if corrective measures are not taken soon to combat climate change. That will be the perfect storm.