Panama Papers, Army, tie Pakistan PM’s hands
Pakistan's Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif may have escaped being ousted from power over his alleged involvement in the Panama Papers irregularities, but he can barely breathe a sigh of relief. The country's Supreme Court has ordered the formation of a joint investigation team to probe the material in the internationally leaked documents that spoke of Sharif's money laundering in the 1990s. Since members of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) will be among those who will comprise the team, the Pakistani Prime Minister will now be even more in the grip of his Army, and will have to keep the Generals in good humour at least until such time he gets a clean chit — if he does. Sharif got a reprieve following a split verdict of the five-judge Bench, with two judges ruling that he was unfit to continue in office given the circumstances and three maintaining that there was insufficient evidence to seek the Prime Minister's ouster. Pakistan is in a peculiar situation with the Prime Minister himself being officially probed for the serious crime of money laundering. What it does to Sharif's powers is obvious. Not only is his authority further diminished vis-à-vis the Army but politically too he has become a sitting duck for the opposition parties that are bound to exploit the situation. Even if he emerges unscathed, he will be beholden to the Army for the favour; and if he is indicted, he will have to exit in an unceremonious fashion. The fact that a court ruling, even if a minority one, should hold a country's Prime Minister “dishonest”, is shameful for the incumbent leader and his party. Sharif has of course denied the Panama Papers' allegations, saying that the offshore affairs were managed by his children; that he had no role to play in them; and, that he was not bound by law to declare such deals in his income tax or other documents. His claim will soon be tested.
While the developments are on the surface Pakistan's internal affairs, they can have a bearing on India-Pakistan relations. Ties are already strained, and they have worsened with the Kulbhushan Jadhav case. A section of experts had hoped for Sharif to take the lead in normalising relations. But that is unlikely to happen now, given that he cannot, even more so now, annoy the Army and its powerful ISI — two agencies that are in the forefront of sabotaging every single positive move that is taken. Besides, a crippled Sharif cannot risk good words for India because it will harm his domestic prospects further. This is not to say that he had been committed earlier to forging strong relations with New Delhi. Although he has kept reiterating this resolve, he has followed it more in the breach. Sharif just does not have it in him to be bold and persuasive.
Given the situation, it is possible that the Sharif regime, in a bid to deflect public attention from its leader's personal woes, will give the go-ahead to its rogue and state elements to escalate unrest in Jammu & Kashmir. The State is already in the grip of a crisis, no doubt with Pakistan's backing. The summer has set in, and every year it has been the case that infiltration from the Pakistani side sees an increase. This summer will be no different; if anything, it's going to be more challenging.