Political stability, the hallmark of Tamil Nadu, looks uncertain given AIADMK’s war within
Tamil Nadu politics remains in a state of flux caused by J Jayalalithaa’s death over eight months ago. An intense power struggle is on within the AIADMK, as it is pulled in three different directions by former Chief Minister O Panneerselvam, his successor Edappadi K Palaniswami and TTV Dinakaran, party deputy general secretary and nephew of jailed general secretary VK Sasikala. Incidentally, the AIADMK’s disintegration is happening in a year that marks its 45th anniversary; the birth centenary of its founder MG Ramachandran; and the 40th anniversary of MGR’s first ascension to the Chief Minister’s office. Jayalalithaa, who gained control of AIDAMK after MGR’s death in 1987, took the party to new heights. In the years preceding her death, she was among the few who withstood the Modi wave that swept the 2014 lok Sabha election to register AIADMK’s landslide win bagging 37 of the 39 seats. She then led AIADMK’s return to power in 2016 winning 136 of the 234 Assembly seats.
But less than a year into her demise, speculations are already on about the number of factions the 1.5-crore-member-strong AIADMK would split into by the next election. The three warring AIADMK leaders hail from Tamil Nadu unlike MGR and Jayalalithaa, having origins in Kerala and Karnataka respectively. However, none of them shows the potential of carrying the party and communities together the way MGR and Jaya did. The DMK is keen on benefiting from the ruling party’s turmoil. However, DMK patriarch M Karunanidhi is out of political action since October 2016 due to age-related health issues. DMK is hit by the rivalry between members of Karunanidhi’s extended family and his son and party’s working president Stalin is yet to prove his mettle without father. Some senior DMK leaders are grumbling for being sidelined by Stalin in favour of his son and son-in-law.
The DMK has 98 MlAs but it has not yet succeeded in creating any insecurity to the Government. Congress is the third player in the State, where it is said it has more leaders than cadres thus making it topheavy without a base.The PMK, VCK and TMMK (an Islamic outfit) are all community-centric and survive by piggy-riding the AIADMK or DMK. As for the BJP, despite its ambitions it’s devoid of a dedicated cadre base and a State leader to match the likes of even a Stalin. It is thus focusing on drawing support from both the OPS and EPS factions besides, of course, Tamil superstar Rajinikanth, who has indicated at making his entry into the State’s political arena sooner or later. Not to be left out, his rival Kamal Hasan has also started making noises to make his presence felt.
With Jaya gone and Karunanidhi out of active political action, it is to be seen if the present churnings in Tamil Nadu throw up the next big leader who could restore the State’s hallmark — political stability. Till then, the State should brace for a Goa, Manipur or Arunachal Pradesh experience.