As Iraq falls into the hands of jihadists, one must ask if foreign occupation, rather than the re-configuration of political power or the deepening of sectarian divide, is the real Casus belli for the collapse of that country
History has a habit of repeating itself; rather, reversing events, ironically these days by non-state actors, which in Iraq’s case was shaped by the Anglo-French Sykes/Picot Action Plan to modernise West Asia after World War I that ended the Ottoman Empire. In a way, this is Arab revenge over Western cartography. In his foreword to my book, War Despatches, Operation Iraqi Freedom (2004), then Union Minister for Finance Jaswant Singh observed that, “learned editorials have now begun to appear in the Western media about re-dividing this troubled country into three: All over again. What then was the whole point of that unity which less than a century back, resulted in the creation of IraqIJ”
The fight against terrorism —the global war on terrorism as it was then called and later, less belligerently renamed — has come to haunt most parts of the world. Terrorists are challenging the concept of international order —progress and democracy — with Islamic Caliphates defined by medieval sharia’h law. Call them ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) or ISIl (Islamic State in Syria and levant), or even the Islamic State of Khorasan, the 11,000-member strong fanatic, efficient and financially savvy Sunni fighters, allied with former Ba’athist soldiers have run riot in the north and west of Iraq, de facto trifurcating it into Sunni, Kurdish and Shia segments in a matter of 72 hours. A new Sunni-Shia war has begun in the region rendering infructuous, the martyrdom of nearly 4,000 US and 1,000 UK soldiers and the collective cost of more than a trillion dollars not to mention the loss of half a million Iraqi civilians.
How 30,000 soldiers of Iraq’s Northern Command, of the one million Iraqi military troops trained by the Americans at a cost of $25 billion, were vanquished by a rebel Army must be investigated for there lie lessons for the new post-2014 Afghanistan and other Arab monarchies totally untested against the likes of Al Qaeda affiliates. The arc of instability at the time of US intervention in Iraq, wrote Mr Singh, “currently runs from Palestine to Pakistan”. The Western extremity of instability, thanks to Arab and African Springs (‘Jihad Springs’) has been extended to Mali.
What transpired in the last two weeks and since American forces exited Iraq in December 2011, is the direct outcome of Operation Iraqi Freedom and its by-product, regime change. Iraqi infrastructure and institutions, including the Army, were dismantled, and eight years of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s rule has deepened sectarian strife. The new Shia-dominated military evaporated in the North, leaderless. In the post script of the book, I had noted: “The potential for guerrilla warfare (insurgency), liberators perceived as occupation forces, and the stress on the internal political dynamics of Iraq, had become a reality.”
That said, one of the reasons being offered for the current internal eruption is the failure of the US to secure a bilateral security agreement with Iraq, which Mr Maliki refused. So, is foreign occupation, rather than the re-configuration of political power and the Shia-Sunni sectarian divide, the real Casus belli of civil warIJ For long, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan has claimed its war against Islamabad is due to Pakistan fighting the US’s proxy war. Similarly, the Afghan Taliban says its fight is not against Afghans but foreign forces. The Afghan Taliban intervention and take-over of Kabul pre-dated the arrival of foreign forces!
The stunning and overwhelming takeover of north-west Iraq by ISIS, with was already battling Iraqi forces for at least six months, took everyone by surprise, reflecting both the failure of intelligence and border control. Disguised as a spillover from the forgotten war in Syria, the marauding rebels had apparently penetrated and subverted the lower ranks of security forces through psy-war and Salafist Islamic thought. local Sunni supporters acted as force multipliers — so acute is the sectarian divide. Iraq’s second largest city Mosul, with a population of two million, capitulated with most residents fleeing into Kurdish areas towards Erbil, the administrative headquarters of Kurdistan. In the melee, Kurdish forces captured intact, Kirkuk which produced 4,00,000 barrels of oil per day and declared greater autonomy.
Sporadic fighting is reported north of Baghdad but the capital is not in any immediate danger. ISIS will think twice before overreaching into Shia-dominated areas and prefer to consolidate their gains in the Sunni heartland. The Iraqi counter-attack will come following the formation of a unity Government. US veterans of Operation Iraqi Freedom, including Special Forces and the Central Intelligence Agency, who would have infiltrated the areas to be reclaimed, will direct surgical air and drone strikes to support the ground offensive by the Iraqi Army, possibly boosted by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. It is not inconceivable that after direct talks between the US and Iran in Geneva (P5+1 nuclear dialogue earlier this month) the two might actually be fighting on the same side.
Indian interests in Iraq are three-fold: Security of Indian citizens and rescuing of those held hostage; Energy security as Iraq provides around 13 to 14 per cent of our oil needs; and the containment of jihadi terrorism that is already at our door-step. It is high time India developed credible skills and capability for out-of- area rescue missions, especially in the arc of instability. Contingency plans for evacuation and rescue of citizens as well as alternatives for oil and gas procurements must be in place. Greater willingness to address the sources of threat and instability, rather than fighting them on Indian soil —the Panipat mindset — must be developed. In the Epilogue of my book, there is a reference to the previous NDA Government seriously considering a US request for one division of troops to seal the post-war borders in Iraq to prevent cross-border terrorism. While the then Army chief, General NC Vij, rejected the idea on operational grounds, Parliament adopted a unanimous resolution not to get involved in Iraq.
The most-chastised British Prime Minister, Mr Tony Blair, who still faces the outcome of the Chilcot Inquiry for his allegedly misleading role in Iraq, said recently that the greatest military challenge facing the world is terrorism fuelled by radical Islam and it must be met collectively by the international community. Saudi Arabia and Iran have to end their proxy wars in Syria, Iraq and elsewhere. India is the lead proponent in the UN of implementing the myriad UN resolutions on counter-terrorism. The march of the Islamic Caliphate has to be arrested and rolled back. The Modi Government has to think and act beyond border fencing, mine fields and ditch-cum-bunds.