The most critical issue facing the Afghan President is dealing with the Taliban. He believes that as the US has failed to pacify the Taliban and is in withdrawal mode, it is time to try out China and sup with Pakistan
Unlike in Iraq, US intervention in Afghanistan is not considered a failure. Given time and resources, notably US troop presence and funding, Afghanistan is expected to stabilise. It was, therefore, not surprising that last month, President Ashraf Ghani brought back from the US, a commitment to maintain troops at the present level till 2016 without halving them this year. Further, Mr Ghani picked up a $800 million development partnership package and the relaunch of the Bilateral Commission and the Security Consultative Forum. This means that, till early 2017, 10,800 US troops, 2,000 Nato forces and 40,000 private contractors will be based in Afghanistan. Earlier thinking was that US and Nato forces at a higher number would remain at the 10 US bases till 2024 to cover the decade of transformation. According to the Base Support Agreement and the Status of Forces Agreement, US and Nato forces can remain in Afghanistan till 2024 and beyond.
With two transitions — political and security — completed reasonably successfully, there is every likelihood that the next US President might wish to deal with the question of ‘sanctuaries’ in Pakistan ‘more decisively’ and order another surge to extend beyond the existing deadline of 2016. The political transition has produced a National Unity Government with a Cabinet of Ministers picked up by Mr Ghani and CEO, Mr Abdullah Abdullah after nearly eight months. The security transition making Afghan National Security Forces 100 per cent in charge of defence of the country is a commendable achievement.
The most critical issue facing the new Government is dealing with the Taliban to end external violence. As both the US and Nato forces and ANSF have failed to neutralise Taliban sanctuaries in Pakistan, Mr Ghani has ordered a strategic reorientation towards China and Pakistan, the eternal all-weather allies. He believes that as the Americans have failed to pacify the Taliban and are in withdrawal mode, it is time to try out China and sup with the devil, Pakistan. Even a child knows that the key to peace and stability in Afghanistan is Pakistan. China, the second largest economy with the second biggest defence Budget after the US, fancies itself as a king-maker.
Beijing’s main concern is to prevent the East Turkestan Islamic Movement — which has bases in Federally Administered Tribal Areas and is the fountainhead of Uyghur movement terrorising Xinjiang — from rolling through the Badakhshan panhandle in Afghanistan into China. Its other interest in Afghanistan is the abundant oil and mineral resources waiting to the extracted.
China has taken some striking initiatives on Afghanistan like hosting the Heart of Asia conference, starting a China-Pakistan-Afghanistan trilateral dialogue, and appointing an envoy for Afghanistan, Sun Yuxi. The first country Mr Ghani visited after Pakistan was China where he urged President Xi Jinping to coax Pakistan into helping prod Taliban to join peace talks. Mr Ghani also opened a direct line to General Raheel Sharif, breaking protocol by visiting General Headquarters, Rawalpindi. A joint Afghanistan-Pakistan commission has been set up to improve relations on the border and for the first time, six cadets have been sent to the Pakistan Military Academy.
Beijing hosted a two-man Taliban delegation from the Qatar office. How much the Taliban has changed: It used to tell the Hamid Karzai Government that it will not talk to Afghans but only with US as the latter calls the shots. In December 2001, after their ouster from Kabul the Taliban begged the Americans for talks but Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld of the ‘Known-Unknown’ fame rejected the offer of dialogue. Talking to the Taliban is a convoluted enterprise: Everyone in the West — the US, the UK, France, Germany and Turkey — and the Qataris have talked to them, sometimes with imposters who have made money in these junkets. Mr Karzai was also engaged in back-channel conversations with zero success. So, where no one has succeeded, what chances are there for a breakthrough nowIJ One expert on Taliban calls this a
pipe dream.
Epitomising the talks are two words: Reconciliation and re-integration. Tomes have been written about them, including India’s rejection of the process though it later compromised. The Afghans are quite divided on reconciliation given the composition of the Unity Government. The Taliban itself is not united but General Raheel Sharif is fully backing the proposition. But here is the rub: He has agreed to present the legitimate Taliban provided four conditions are met by Kabul: Evict India from the south and east of the country, meaning its consulates at Jalalabad and Kandahar are closed down; Engage in security cooperation with Pakistan; provide full access to Central Asia; give extra-constitutional space to Taliban. While these conditions are under consideration the Americans have kept the door open for talks by not slapping the terrorist tag on Taliban. Many Afghans want that even after reconciliation — if ever — the Taliban must be put through the post-conflict phase of Disarmament, De-mobilisation and Re-integration after undergoing the mother of all de-radicalisation programmes to prevent ANSF from becoming Talibanised.
“The 3,52,000 strong ANSF stands like a rock”, said former Director of National Directorate of Security in Afghanistan, Amrullah Saleh, at the Jaipur counter-terrorism conference last month. He added, “ANSF has not lost an inch of ground.” The litmus test of any counter-Taliban capability is measured by ANSF capacity to retain the two key districts of Kandahar, he said. ANSF holds those districts. In February this year, ANSF ousted the Taliban from the poppy-growing region of Sangin district in Helmand, said Major General Kurt Fuller of Nato forces in Afghanistan. The question is, can the ANSF continue to hold onIJ Yes, provided their salaries are paid and fire support and logistics improved. President Barack Obama has promised to pay for the ANSF till 2016. This time around, Taliban is bereft of the motivation of fighting foreign forces: They will be fighting Afghans. The big test is expected in the Taliban summer offensive this year even as it takes heavy casualties.
Mr Ghani is attempting to change the Afghan narrative by re-ordering the visible strategic priority of the main players. Pakistan is right up front followed by a China with little appetite to play a lead role. India for the present, has lost its importance to act as a counterweight to Pakistan. As reconciliation will likely fail because power-sharing is not in the Taliban book, Mr Ghani has a Plan B for a grand bargain with Pakistan, which must wait for the next column.