IM, Taliban may step up anti-India offensive
Over the past few years, South Asia has unanimously been recognised as one of the world's most dangerous neighbourhoods. Now, as almost every country in this region finds itself at a major crossroads, India must raise its fences and tighten vigil. Just because there have been no major terror attacks in the past few years, the country cannot afford to be lulled into a sense of complacency, as one of the country's foremost security analysts has cautioned. Former National Security Adviser MK Narayanan, who is currently serving as the Governor of West Bengal, warned of heightened jihadi violence against India. He has offered a comprehensive overview of the terror threats that the country must prepare against. He red-flagged the Indian Mujahideen which he said had the potential to become a formidable security threat sooner than later — and rightly so. The group is known to be consistently increasing its cadre base, recruiting disgruntled youths from all parts of the country; it is also known to have become better funded and armed. In short, it is now more lethal, and its relatively high profile attacks within the Bodh Gaya temple complex and at the site of Narendra Modi's election rally in Patna last year stand proof. The Indian Mujahideen is labeled as a ‘home-grown' terror network, yet as Mr Narayanan and other scholars have pointed out, the outfit receives significant external support, primarily from Pakistan but also from Saudi Arabia, which serves as its lifeblood. The Indian Mujahideen's links with the Pakistan-based laskhar-e-Tayyeba are well-established; as is the fact that the latter, which caught global attention for executing the 2008 carnage in Mumbai, is the Pakistani spy agency's favourite anti-India weapon.
Indeed, as Pakistan's threat perception vis-à-vis India gains a new dimension in Afghanistan, following the drawdown of US troops from that country, New Delhi must brace itself for a tenuous security situation. First, there is the obvious threat from a resurgent Taliban supported by its Pakistani patrons. Even if the group does not grab Kabul again, it is possible that it may take back some territory, since it remains unclear to what extent the Afghan security forces will hold ground. Moreover, Islamabad's eagerness to co-opt the Taliban — both the Afghan and Pakistani franchises — has also given a boost to the Al Qaeda-affiliated terror network. Second, as the fighting in Afghanistan winds down, it is possible that the jihadis will be deployed back in Kashmir. The manner in which the line of Control came alive last year speaks volumes. Third, the law and order situation in Pakistan continues to be on a downward spiral with neither the military nor the civilian Government able to rein in terror groups wreaking havoc in that country. And these are just issues on India's western flank. On our eastern borders, the situation in Bangladesh, where Islamists are on the rampage, is a matter of concern. The continued instability in Nepal is an added worry.