Modi has not missed a beat in terms of his vision. He seems to be in step with the aspirations of India's millions. The problem is not with the words, but with the speed of the deeds that must accompany them
“We have to be greater than what we suffer”
— The Amazing Spider-Man 2
George Danton, a leader of the French Revolution, extolled the virtues of audacity, first, as it is recorded, followed later by Emperor Napoleon Bonaparte, and US General Patton, later still. ‘Audacity of Hope’ was also the name of one of President Barack Obama’s books, much publicised and analysed in the run-up to his first term in office. The word is certainly a morale-booster with its hint of impetuosity. It is another matter that audacity seems to serve only in short bursts.
Mr Narendra Modi, with his spectacular rise from humble beginnings, is probably cut from similarly audacious cloth, though, loner that he is, he mostly goads himself into ever more spectacular performance. But a lot of it so far as Prime Minister has been electoral in nature, inclusive of something of a victory lap through some international capitals gathering pledges of future investment.
The hard, if mundane business of day-to-day governance, and far-reaching economic reform, are yet to receive that audacious touch. In fact, in matters economic and domestic, there is a curious display of an abundance of caution. And his ministerial council appears to be, one and all, marking time and awaiting further orders. Audacity and caution then, in a potentially combustible political mix — where is it all headedIJ
The Maharashtra and Haryana election results are awaited shortly. The BJP is expected to wrest power in both States, and if it does so, it will be a vindication of the strategies laid out by the Prime Minister and BJP president Amit Shah. Others in the party have no doubt played their part, but it is the ‘dynamic duo’ that calls all the important shots. That is how it is, and will be, going forward, the tried and tested partnership, cemented by past and impending success.
Both men will give credence to the policy adopted, of going it practically alone in the Assembly elections wherever possible. This, in order to establish BJP firmly as the only national party of governance in due course.
These anticipated victories, Maharashtra for its many very useful Rajya Sabha seats, and the moneyed influence from the commercial capital of Mumbai; and Haryana for its glittering Gurgaon district, are definitely prizes well worth having.
But hopefully, soon after the results are announced, and the hosannas have receded, Mr Modi will make bold to pump-prime the languishing economy, waiting on him for specific moves, ever since the BJP won power in May. Consumer price index inflation is down, likewise wholesale price index, the computer-aided design is looking good, but industrial output, and core sector data are languishing. International money flows are in go-slow mode, awaiting developments.
Many things need to be done urgently. Interest rates need to be lowered to bring cheer to business and industry. labour laws need to be changed. Extraneous taxes on manufacturing have to be scrapped. The linking of General Anti-Avoidance Rule to at least seven per cent growth in gross domestic product, a good move recently announced, is a way of putting it in cold storage. We need more business confidence- building measures like this. The Bombay High Court judgement last week, exempting Vodafone from taxes applied, if left unchallenged, will also send out the right signal. land has to be quickly acquired for roads, railways, factories, ports and utilities. The legal system needs to become more efficient. The slogans of ‘minimum Government, maximum governance’ and ‘red carpet not red tape’, have to be given content to. The list of pending items is indeed very long, because India has never really had an efficient Government before either.
In tackling the ills of our economy, the steadily reducing oil prices are a great and timely boon. Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries members have even begun to disagree amongst themselves on whether to cut prices or production. Oil prices are already in the eighties and tending lower from all-time highs of around $115 per barrel.
Saudi Arabia, the biggest producer, long held fast for an average yield of $100 per barrel, partly because its expenditure was just below its revenue yield at that price. It has now opened the floodgates to lower prices by saying informally that it is willing to take $80 per barrel if need be. Saudi Arabia is contemplating building up deficits instead of surpluses for the first time in decades. This is a changed world of too much oil and not enough demand. Some international brokerages have indicated oil prices will reduce further to around $ 70 a barrel, and Saudi Arabia probably knows this.
Of course, the price at present is still holding up at about $88 a barrel, but Iraq has already followed the theme, with discounts. Venezuela wants to cut production but is not getting any support for its stance from the others. The powerful oil cartels, ruling the roost since the Seventies, is slipping, and prices going forward may well be determined by demand and supply after all.
In the near to medium term, this scenario, when India imports 80 per cent of an ever growing quantity of petroleum, is a wonderful opportunity for us to push through a number of structural reforms. Will Mr Modi seize the moment with audacity or lose the opportunity to make deep and permanent changesIJ Half measures will simply not do.
India will not become the manufacturing hub of the world he wants to see without becoming a welcoming investment destination. India will not go towards double-digit growth either, not without great and sweeping boosters applied to business, industry, services, agriculture, infrastructure, and yes, governance.
It is almost certain, from the perspective of these early days, that Mr Modi’s Government will do much better than the United Progressive Alliance that preceded it. But will it live up to its own promiseIJ The people did not elect Mr Modi to be handed a slightly better deal than before. Besides, with the demographic pressures operating in this country, that kind of gradualism will be dangerously inadequate. The demand from the voting public is fast and total transformation of this country.
In Mr Modi’s first term, the country expects to be set on course to become a developed country, and in the second, to come, it expects to have made considerable progress along this road. For him personally, it is an epoch-making opportunity.
The point is that Mr Modi has not missed a beat in terms of his vision. He seems to be exactly in step with the aspirations of India’s millions. The problem looming, however, is not with the words, but with the speed of the deeds that must accompany them, but have not as yet.