On OBOR, CPEC, China will face challenges
There is a great deal of disapproval in the ‘liberal' media over India's refusal to participate in the China-driven One Belt One Road (OBOR) project, with commentators warning that India would be the eventual loser in economic terms. But all things cannot always be reduced to money and material; there is such a thing as geo-strategic position. In this case, one of the components of the OBOR is the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) which passes through regions held by Pakistan that India has always disputed. It is facile for China to say that the project is not an endorsement of Pakistan's claims over the disputed region or a rejection of New Delhi's stated position, and that the matter is strictly in the economic domain. By taking part in the OBOR, India would end up diluting its stand on Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. In fact, China should be asking itself as to why it is going about with the ambitious scheme by neglecting New Delhi's sensitivities. Besides, parts of the region through which the CPEC will pass in Pakistan are restive — the Baloch area, for instance, is up in arms. There is no point in Islamabad blaming India for the unrest there because everyone knows the real cause — which is, that the Baloch people are disgusted with the atrocities Pakistan Army has been committing on them and suppressing their desires. Sooner or later, Beijing will understand the mess that it has got itself into. Pakistan will, without doubt, increase its brutal suppression to ensure that its friend China's project continues unhampered, but the more Islamabad does that the more troubles will mount. In fact, even some Chinese commentators have begun to question the sagacity of pushing ahead in the midst of these uncertainties. In Pakistan, some fears have been expressed on whether the nation can afford the huge investments as part of its contribution. There is a very real fear that the more Islamabad falls into a debt trap the more it will have to lean on China to rescue it. And such acts chivalry come at a price.
Besides, China cannot avoid the conflicts that are arising in the region due to Pakistan's tendency to push terrorism in the region, including in Afghanistan. A section of the $50 billion CPEC passes through Afghan territory, and Kabul and Islamabad are not on the best of terms. This equation is unlikely to change for the better in the coming months as the CPEC progresses, because Pakistan will not let go of using terrorism as a state policy. The recent conflict in which a few Afghan troops were killed by their Pakistani counterparts, has added to the complicity. Additionally, parts of Balochistan are alongside the borders of Iran — and Iran has recently hinted at striking into Pakistan to flush out terrorists that have been targeting it. The Gwadar port, in which China has heavily invested, is close to Iran. All in all, troublesome days are ahead for China and its friend over the OBOR/CPEC.