Modi’s Russia visit can energise bilateral ties
Prime Minister Narendra Modi's first state visit to Russia — for the annual India-Russia summit — comes at a time of changing geo-political realities. Its success will be gauged from how effectively the two nations respond to these changes. Western sanctions in the aftermath of the Crimea crisis and nose-diving oil prices have had a severe impact on the Russian economy and also pushed Moscow a little too close to Beijing for New Delhi's comfort. One side-effect of these two developments has been the sudden warmth in Russia's ties with Pakistan. last June, Russia lifted its decades-old, self-imposed informal embargo on arms sales to Pakistan, with the sale of four Mi-35M attack helicopters.
In August this year, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu visited Islamabad, which was followed by reports of joint Russia-Pakistan military exercises and, importantly, news that Russia may sell Pakistan its top-of-the-line Sukhoi 35 platform. The Russia-Pakistan matter was discussed during Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar's recent Moscow visit and is expected to come up during Mr Modi's trip as well. That said, there's no need to take an alarmist approach to Russia's relations with Pakistan, which is hardly a threat to India-Russia ties. Moreover, Moscow's flirting with Islamabad must be viewed in the context of India's consistently-improving relations with the US. For more than two decades, New Delhi and Washington, DC, have steadily upgraded ties, including defence cooperation, which was the core of India-Russia bilateral, even as the Delhi-Moscow partnership has somewhat stultified. So much so, that last year, Russia lost its position to the US as India's top defence supplier.
The question now is: Where does the India-Russia bilateral go from hereIJ Defence will remain an important part of the relationship for at least another decade — hence, days before Mr Modi's trip, the purchase of five units of the S-400 air defence missiles from Russia at an approximate cost of Rs30,000 crore was cleared. However, the relationship is also being recast for the long term. last year’s India-Russia summit, for instance, focussed on economic ties, with diamond diplomacy emerging as a new motif. This year, the spotlight is expected to be on energy.
Mr Modi will reportedly take the Kudankulam partnership with Russia further by offering a site in Andhra Pradesh for units five and six of the nuclear plant. last year, the agreement for units three and four, which will come up in Tamil Nadu, had been signed. Additionally, an old India-Russia oil and gas pipeline plan may also get some traction, as Russia looks to diversify its energy customers and India more sources of clean energy. Also, ONGC Videsh, which recently bought a 15 per cent stake in Russia's second largest oil field, will continue its investments in the Russian energy sector, while talks are on for India-Russia collaboration in oil and gas explorations and in exploring the Arctic region.