Coalitions formed to merely keep an individual out of power, rarely succeed. The Janata Party experiment and the Janata Dal cameo are classic examples. The grand alliance succeeded in Bihar because of BJP’s self-goals
Things can change dramatically in Indian politics in three years’ time. But often, the more they change the more they remain the same. The rise of the Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party in 2014 and the party’s continuing wins in various elections, have compelled the opposition parties to explore ways to stem the tide. One way is to come together to face the onslaught — a grand national coalition of sorts. Previous such efforts came a cropper for a variety of reasons. Will the new thrust be any different.
led by the Congress, some are plotting a dry run of their experiment in the coming presidential election. West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has met her Odisha counterpart Naveen Patnaik, Bihar Chief Minister has met Congress president Sonia Gandhi, and the Communist Party of India (Marxist) has asked the Congress to decided on a ‘secular’ candidate. There is expectancy in the opposition camps they will succeed in projecting a joint candidate as the country’s next President. If they can manage it, it could set the foundation for an alliance in the 2019 lok Sabha election.
We have seen such efforts before. Mamata Banerjee and Mulayam Singh Yadav had assured each other of support over APJ Abdul Kalam’s candidature, but the attempt fell apart. The presidential election is a tricky one where one has witnessed even allies adopting different stances. For example, when the Congress-led UPA had announced Pratibha Patil’s name, the BJP had vehemently opposed it but its partner Shiv Sena endorsed the name because Patil was from Maharashtra — and it became a matter of regional pride for the Sena. Will things be any different now for the OppositionIJ
The BJP-led NDA is on a stronger footing than it was prior to the recent Assembly elections. While it already had more than 300 members in the lok Sabha, it now has an overwhelming majority in Uttar Pradesh, the country’s politically most crucial State. Its spread across the country has all but obliterated the Congress from power. Clearly, the Congress on its own cannot have a candidate elected. But will strong regional parties such as the Janata Dal (United), Biju Janata Dal and the Trinamool Congress see eye to eye — and more importantly, be willing to be part of an understanding brokered by a depleting CongressIJ While the Trinamool Congress may be on a warpath against the BJP, the BJD hasn’t been that aggressive; in fact, it has been supportive of various measures the Union Government has taken. This could change now, given the BJP’s dramatic wins in Odisha’s local body elections and the fresh thrust of the party in the State against the BJD, following the national executive it chose to hold in Bhubaneswar.
Not surprisingly, the outfits willing to party together are the ones that have been battered by the BJP’s rise in recent months. Their earlier confidence of taking on Modi single-handedly has dissipated, and they are now willing to swallow their arrogance and work together. They have been finding ways to express the sentiment. The presidential election is one such; the other has been the electronic voting machines. The Congress, the Samajwadi Party, the Bahujan Samaj Party, the Aam Aadmi Party — all recent losers — have held the machines responsible for the defeats. Earlier, a vague attempt had been made at opposition unity over the demonetisation decision, led by Mamata Banerjee. That fizzled out, partly because no party wanted to be seen as subordinate to her, and partly because a few had begun to realise that Prime Minister Modi and team had managed to successfully sell to the public the idea that demonetisation was for the national good and pro-poor.
Nothing clicks more with the masses than a drive perceived to be against the corrupt rich and powerful. Besides, important opposition leaders such as Naveen Patnaik and Nitish Kumar had refused to be part of the anti-demonetisation conglomeration, with the latter openly endorsing demonetisation.
The theory that, once major opposition parties come together, they will be able to halt the Modi-led BJP’s march, presumes that physical unity alone is the key. This has never been the case. The Congress contested the 2014 election with a slew of partners but lost; the Congress and the Samajwadi Party joined hands in Uttar Pradesh and were pounded; the BJP had a number of local partners in Tamil Nadu but lost the election there. On the other hand, both Naveen Patnaik and Mamata Banerjee took on rivals in their respective States single-handedly and were victorious. Interestingly, media reports have it that the Congress’s internal assessment is that it lost in Uttar Pradesh because of its tie-up with the Samajwadi Party which was seen as ‘pro-Muslim’.
Besides, coalitions formed merely on the pretext of keeping an individual or his or her party out of power, rarely succeed. The Janata Party experiment of 1977 and the Janata Dal cameo of 1990 are classic examples. Yes, the grand alliance formed by the JD(U), the Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Congress did manage to stop the BJP juggernaut in the Bihar Assembly election — but remember that the BJP had been cruising along pretty well in the run-up to the poll despite opposition unity, before it began to score self-goals at embarrassingly regular intervals and lost the plot.
People are not looking for new alliances but new narratives that sound convincing and go beyond the political need to humiliate an individual. The Congress, which hopes to lead a potential partnership, itself is floundering and has nothing fresh to offer the public. Its negativity is such that it even brought the mighty Samajwadi Party down — the reverse cannot be true because the Congress was not in an elevated position to be pulled down. The left Front’s political narrative sounds jaded and that of the BSP lacks credibility. Mamata Banerjee is strong in her State but she has begun to face the heat of a rising BJP. In any case, her mercurial nature will keep away leaders from other parties, who will scarcely endorse her leadership.
The leadership issue in such an alliance is primary. Strong regional leaders don’t have a pan-India base and the Congress which does, has a weak leader. The question, therefore, is not just whether an anti-BJP coalition can be formed nationally but also as to who the leader of such an outfit will be that can take on Modi. The ruling BJP can breathe easy so long as these questions continue to trouble the Opposition.
(The writer is Opinion Editor, The Pioneer)