By-poll results should please the BJP, though
The results of the by-elections to four lok Sabha constituencies and 10 Assembly seats in six States and one Union Territory, held on November 19, is significant in the sense that all parties did fairly well and retained their respective seats. However, it is surprising that many political parties and also political pundits opined that the Modi Government's decision to demonetise high-value currency notes would be a subject of referendum in these by-polls. If this were indeed true, then there's reason for the BJP to cheer, because not only did it win big in ruling States of Madhya Pradesh and Assam, but also won impressively in Arunachal Pradesh and did fairly well in other States. In Assam, the ruling BJP defeated its closest rival, the Congress, in the lakhaimpur lok Sabha seat by a margin of 1,90,219 votes. Similarly, it won the Baithalang Assembly seat by 16,600 votes. In Madhya Pradesh, even as the Congress launched a determined campaign and played the demonetisation versus local issue card, it was a clean victory for the Shivraj Singh Chouhan Government, with the party bagging two lok Sabha seats and one Assembly seat. In West Bengal, while the Trinamool Congress retained two lok Sabha seats and one Assembly seat with a good margin, the saffron party did not lag behind, improving its vote share dramatically. It registered a significant gain of 12 per cent and nine per cent in Cooch Behar and Tamluk respectively.
On the other hand, in Tamil Nadu, the ruling All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam won all the three Assembly seats by a comfortable margin. In Tripura, the Communist Party of India (Marxist) Government won both the Assembly seats, but the BJP gave a tough competition, finishing second in Barjala. Gradually, the BJP is expanding its base and making rapid inroads not only in the southern States, but also in the North-East. No wonder, for the Congress, it was a complete wipe out in all places except Puducherry, where it won the Nellithope seat, and that too because tit was contested by its Chief Minister and Congress leader V Narayanasamy.
The BJP's ‘big win’ of five seats out of a total of 14 seats speaks volumes. It is a tight slap on the face of opinion-makers and parties who, before polling, were of the view that the chaos, following demonetisation, would damage the BJP's prospects in the by-elections. It would be naïve to believe that demonetisation played a crucial role in these elections. Agreed, demonetisation must have troubled the voters, but what must have actually driven the people to vote are local issues. Demonetisation is an issue that has affected people nationwide and the public in general have come out in support of this move. What matters for the local people is development and good governance. To that extent, the Sarbanand Sonowal regime in Assam and the Chouhan Government in Madhya Pradesh are deserving of credit.