NlD regime, Suu Kyi face many challenges
In most countries, it’ll be difficult to imagine a situation wherein it takes as long as four months after an election for one administration to hand over charge to another. Yet, in Myanmar, this has been the case: The country voted in November 2015 and the new Government it elected will officially take charge only on April 1 this year. The long transition period may be frustrating to some, but in Myanmar, where the shift to democracy has been cautious and slow, though steady, perhaps, this makes good sense. If the 2010 general election paved the way for a nominally civilian regime, the general election of November 2015 did better — it brought to power a truly civilian Government. Yes, the military remains a vital part of the overall governance structure, with 25 per cent seats in Parliament. But the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party has been reduced to a small presence, while democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi's National league for Democracy has a thumping majority. Both groups have spent the past four months ironing out the transition process which included the contentious issue of Suu Kyi's own position in Government. As the leader of the winning party, she should have had the top job, but the Constitution bars her from presidency because her sons hold British passports. There were at least three rounds of direct negotiations between Suu Kyi and the military on getting around this clause, but they fell through. Now, Suu Kyi's trusted aide Htin Kyaw is President-elect while she herself will be a Cabinet Minister, holding the Foreign Affairs portfolio among others. This gives Suu Kyi a seat in the powerful National Security and Defence Council which is dominated by the military and has expansive powers. The military is also keeping the important portfolios of Defence, Home and Border Affairs — which means that the NlD will have to work in close cooperation with the Tatmadaw. Now, Suu Kyi has managed this well in recent years and, in fact, had a positive working relationship with outgoing President Thein Sein. However, now that the power equation has changed, it will be interesting to see how the relationship plays out.
It is unlikely that the military will reverse the democratic process that it itself rolled out while the NlD regime can be expected to avoid confrontation because it needs military support to resolve some of its biggest challenges, especially the peace agreement with the ethnic armed groups. The power dynamic between Suu Kyi and Htin Kyaw is yet another variable, with the former having said that she will supersede the President's office. Only time will tell how that factor will play out. The big issue for the NlD regime now is to deliver good governance and steer the country through a challenging period. This will be tough as its leaders have little to no experience in lawmaking, given that they haven't been in power for decades.