Prachanda must tackle Madhesi issue soon
Nepal's Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda' would be well advised to notice the gathering clouds of social and political unrest on the horizon and address them before they rain trouble in the country. The United Democratic Madhesi Front (UDMF) has given a seven-day ultimatum to the Prachanda regime to resolve the community's grievances or face the consequences — stepped-up street protests across Nepal and the withdrawal of the Front's support to the Government. The UDMF has placed a five-point memorandum to the Prime Minister with a clear message that it has run out of patience. This is bad news for the Prachanda regime which recently assumed power on the strength of the Madhesi support and on the Prime Minister's personal assurance that he would settle the matter for good. It must be remembered that the KPS Oli Government had to bow out because it lost majority support, and among those who pulled out support were the Madhesi groups. Surely, Prachanda would not like this piece of history to be repeated against him. Moreover, it's not just the immediacy of the issue which should bother the Nepalese Prime Minister; his own political image, at least crafted since the last five years or so, has been based, among other things, on the backing of the Madhesi community. If he fails, then the entire communist movement he leads will be tainted as being a betrayer to the cause of this community which, certainly, has received a raw deal over the years. While the UDMF has forwarded a number of demands to be addressed, the core has to do with the amendment of the Constitution. The Madhesi grouping has been seeking a review of the Constitution amendment Bill. This is, admittedly, a complex issue which has dogged a resolution since the last months of the Sushil Koirala regime. The Koirala Government was sympathetic to the cause — at least more than the successor Oli dispensation turned out to be — but even he was hobbled by competing demands and the need to politically balance the sentiments of the hills and the plains. Besides, Koirala appeared to have lost the political will in his last months in office, embattled as he was by many political challenges to his leadership from within his Nepali Congress party and from outside (including Prachanda), as well as troubled by health issues.
Meanwhile, what should India doIJ Well, nothing much, except give advice when asked for. There are two good reasons for such a hands-off approach. The first is that it must refrain from provoking a perception it is ‘interfering' in the internal affairs of a smaller neighbour. Not just Prachanda before but also Oli had frequently accused New Delhi of meddling in Nepal's business. The months-long road blockade by agitating Madhesis last year of essential supplies had been blamed on India. In the days of the monarchy, political leaders had condemned Indian ‘involvement' in Nepal's affairs. ‘Once bitten twice shy' should be the motto. And yet, New Delhi cannot be disinterested because, any unrest in Nepal will impact India. The second reason why New Delhi must exercise caution is the China factor. Beijing has been expanding its footprint in Nepal at a furious pace, and if India antagonizes Kathmandu, it may indirectly enhance China’s goodwill.