BJP secures its lead in Bihar, keeps allies happy
In Indian politics, the term ‘rainbow coalition' is commonly associated with BSP chief Mayawati's electoral engineering that brought together leaders from across the caste spectrum for the 2007 Uttar Pradesh Assembly election. Eight years later, the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance may be on its way to stitching together a similar coalition Government in Bihar. The seat sharing plan, announced by the alliance on Monday, indicates as much. Of the State's 243 Assembly seats, the BJP will field its own candidates in 160 constituencies while the remaining 83 have been split amongst its three allies in the State — Mr Ram Vilas Paswan's lok Janshakti Party will contest from 40 seats, Mr Upendra Kushwaha's Rashtriya lok Samata Party from 23, and Mr Jiten Ram Manjhi's Hindustani Awam Morcha from 20. The BJP hopes to attract its traditional upper caste votebanks while the allies are expected to bring in the Dalit and Other Backward Caste votebanks. The challenge for the BJP was to accomodate the conflicting aspirations of coalition members while ensuring its own position as the primary partner, a first for the party in the State. Both goals seem to have been achieved under the current plan. With 160 seats in its basket, the BJP is in a position to form the Government in Patna with a simple majority, if only it can replicate its 2014 lok Sabha poll strikerate. With regard to conflicting interests of NDA members, the big problem was that some HAM leaders were previously with the lJP, and therefore, the latter had opposed their presence in the election fray, particularly in Mr Paswan's son Chirag's parliamentary constituency. Thankfully, some deft politicking by BJP president Amit Shah and other senior leaders has resolved this and similar problems. Some grievances may still remains, as Mr Chirag Paswan's grumblings on Tuesday indicate, but there is no reason to believe that these cannot be handled.
The NDA’s formula looks good on paper but one may rightly ask: Will it work on the ground and importantly, work well enough to beat the electoral mathematics of the rival Janata grouping that hopes to consolidate the Yadav and Muslim votesIJ Two factors offer some early indications. First, despite their traditional antipathy towards the upper castes, the Dalits and the backward castes now see the Yadavs as their primary oppressor. Hence, as the Yadav vote consolidates around the Janata parties, the Dalits and the backward castes should polarise towards the NDA. Sceptics may warn that one mustn't assume that these votes are fully transferable. There is some merit to this argument as neither Mr Kushwaha nor Mr Manjhi have much experience playing solo, and both their parties are new outfits. But don’t forget that the RlSP won all the three lok Sabha seats from which it contested in 2014 while Mr Manjhi is riding a new wave of popularity.
Add to this Prime Minister Narendra Modi's overall leadership and his message of development and good governance, which will cement the NDA's votebank, in comparison to the internal differences that has already taken the spark out of the Janata grouping, and it’s clear which way the wind is blowing. But the final nail in the Janata coffin may well be delivered by Mr Asaduddin Owaisi and his All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen, which will be contesting from the Muslim-dominated Seemanchal region and will definitely eat into Janata parivar's minority votebank.