Central Asian Republics critical to New Delhi
Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Central Asia tour is the latest of his efforts to revitalise India's foreign policy. India has had strong civilisational ties with that region but today, its relations with not one of the five regional Republics functions at an optimum level. There are two main reasons for this: First, India lost its direct land routes to the region after partitioned in 1947 and, second, the country itself was economically too weak to renew ties with the Central Asian republics when the latter were founded after the collapse of the Soviet Union. In the meantime, other powers — Russia, China, Iran and Turkey — consolidated their positions in the region. Such was India’s decline that, in 2010, it lost the Ayni airbase in Tajikistan, after having spent $70 million on renovating it between 2003 and 2010. India, however, was able to get a foothold at another Tajik facility, the Farkhor air base.
This is India's first military base outside the country — and the fact that it is located in Central Asia underscores the region's geo-strategic importance to New Delhi. In 2012, New Delhi made a concerted effort to revive its presence in the region with the Connect Central Asia policy but the embattled UPA Government was simply not in a position to push that policy ahead.
This is where Mr Modi is expected to make a difference. Starting with his visit to Uzbekistan today, Mr Modi will be in Kazakhstan on July 7-8. Thereafter, he will head to Russia for the BRICS summit and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit. The SCO is a regional grouping of the five Central Asian countries and China. India is expecting to be inducted into the grouping this year. On his way back home, Mr Modi will visit Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. He will be the first Indian Prime Minister to visit all the Republics in one tour. PV Narasimha Rao had done such a tour but he only visited four of the five Republics. Jawaharlal Nehru had also toured the region but at that time, the Republics were part of the Soviet Union. Mr Manmohan Singh made just two separate trips to Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan during his decade-long tenure as Prime Minister. In comparison, several Central Asian leaders including heads of Government have made many trips to India since the 1990s.
As Mr Modi tours the region, trade, energy and security cooperation will be on the top of his agenda. In Uzbekistan, expect the India-built Pul-e-Khumri power line, which transmits power to Kabul, to be celebrated as a symbol of India-Uzbek synergy on Afghanistan. In Kazakhstan, the focus will be on energy, given India's two-decade long effort to secure a foothold in the Kazakh hydrocarbon sector. The long-discussed Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India gas pipeline will be in focus in Turkmenistan while in Kyrgyzstan, which has been conducting joint military exercise with India, security talks will be at the centre. Strategic issues, especially Afghan security, are expected be the focus of talks in Tajikistan.