Now that Narendra Modi is firmly in the saddle as the BJP’s Election Campaign Committee chairman, the Congress has no option but to confront him. But the party’s favourite leader Rahul Gandhi is no match
The Bharatiya Janata Party has been marked by inner conflict resulting in both losses at the hustings and popular perception. There has been a longing on the part of its supporters for a more cohesive entity led by a strong leader. This has been singularly elusive through almost 10 years of sitting in the Opposition. And this following on from a bid to power in 2009 led by veteran BJP leader lK Advani, that did not succeed.
Now the ruling alliance is riddled with shortcomings and failures on multiple fronts, but still there is a feeling that the Opposition, including the principal Opposition party, which is the BJP, is unable to exploit the situation to its advantage. The frequent poll surveys to assess the national mood do, however, show a positive outcome for the BJP and the NDA and a consistent thumbs down to the ruling UPA in the next general election.
The road ahead to a number of Assembly elections followed by the general election in May 2014 latest, calls for a singular focus on the part of the Opposition. While the left stands some chance of clawing back West Bengal from the Trinamool Congress, the BJP has realised its bid for power in the general election needs a tall leader that enthuses.
That is why the RSS and the bulk of the BJP stalwarts have backed the elevation of Chief Minister of Gujarat Narendra Modi to the pole position on the Election Campaign Committee. This has been achieved with a struggle, and has been followed by the protest resignation of Mr Advani from all his party posts, even though he later retracted. The central point, however, remains that the BJP was all set to snatch failure and defeat from the jaws of victory if it didn’t act to unite behind a tall leader. And Mr Modi is considered to be the tallest leader by the rank and file cadres in the BJP and the RSS, and a number of senior leaders; and they, above all else, want to be led into the general elections by him.
President Rajnath Singh has been both statesman-like and courageous in the face of some stalwarts of the BJP disagreeing, to take a principled stand for the good of the BJP and beyond, for the people of this country — the same people who are looking for a viable alternative to the discredited UPA.
Sure, the elevation of Mr Modi could result in the JD(U) leaving the NDA. But this is expected, and will not leave the prospects of the JD(U) in Bihar unscathed, as a recent by-election in a JD(U) stronghold that went to Mr lalu Prasad’s party has demonstrated already. And there may well be other defections or unreasonable leveraging in return for support. But all of this will eventually have to reckon with a core tally for the BJP in the general election that is projected to be enhanced because of Mr Modi’s leadership.
The next Government will be formed after extensive negotiations with regional parties and Independents anyway, whether it is the UPA or the NDA that ends up trying to muster the requisite numbers. And the Third Fronters are hoping to tilt the balance in their own favour. So, the best bet is to try and get as many seats as possible on one’s own. This will be the endeavour of both the Congress and the BJP. After that, depending on how many more are required to get past the 272 mark, the contours of the chief contender will become clear.
But is there a shift of policy in the BJP in favour of development politics and good governanceIJ Elevating Mr Modi despite some controversies that dog his image would seem to suggest so.
And the party rank and file, like so many other BJP enthusiasts amongst the general public, do not seem to care. They are looking forward, not back. As are many Muslims that have been used at election time and ignored thereafter by the UPA. Mr Modi meanwhile has developed a track record of garnering Muslim votes in Gujarat. There is no reason why he won’t be able to do so around the country as well. As a proven developmentwallah, Mr Modi actually does deliver on prosperity to all sections of the population in Gujarat, and given the chance he is likely to do so nationwide as well.
There are some within the BJP and the NDA who fear they will lose their influence with Mr Modi’s elevation. But logically, it does not help them if they resist the will of the majority in the party arrived at in a democratic manner. Mr Modi has to concentrate now on wresting power from the UPA.
Internal squabbles have to be relegated to the back-burner to let him concentrate on this great challenge. There are fortunately enough senior leaders to conduct those back-room negotiations to assuage the anxieties and hurts of those who feel ignored, passed over, or even insulted. Since some of these aggrieved people are very senior and talented, they must not be let go of. But Mr Modi himself has to concentrate on winning as many seats as he can, first and last.
It is also true that the ruling alliance will have to contend with a very strong orator with a proven track record over successive terms in Gujarat, and one who is also much appreciated by big business and industry for his pragmatic support. In an era of rampant corruption, Mr Modi stands out for his lack of taint throughout his tenure. This is indeed very attractive particularly because it has grown so rare in public life.
It is true there are other good men like Mr Shivraj Singh Chouhan in Madhya Pradesh, Mr Raman Singh in Chhattisgarh and Mr Manohar Parrikar in Goa. But fortunately they all support Mr Modi’s elevation and acknowledge his primus inter pares stature. Our national security too is in a shambles. The Gujarat Chief Minister is on record about his desire to tighten up this aspect, given the chance. He has done what he can at the State-level in Gujarat, but even there, lack of authority over Central resources and so forth have hampered his best efforts.
The Congress as such will have to revamp its own poll strategy now, as the inexperienced party vice president Rahul Gandhi is unlikely to be able to take on Mr Modi and his team without considerable bolstering. But the first order of batting is to consolidate this clarity of purpose in the BJP, and the recent decision to elevate Mr Modi has come not a day too soon.