Turmoil in Bihar politics has not come to an end
Jitan Ram Manjhi's resignation ahead of the trust vote he was supposed to face on February 20 came after he realised he had failed to cobble together the numbers needed to sail through, although the Bharatiya Janata Party had announced the support of their MlAs in the Bihar Assembly to the incumbent Chief Minister. It can be argued that Mr Manjhi should have used the floor of the House to ‘discredit' his opponents and then announced his resignation.
In that situation, he would have also had the BJP legislators voicing their trust in him in the Assembly. But then, apart from the fact that he did not have the numbers, it is possible that Mr Manjhi had no faith in the impartiality of the proceedings of the House with an openly pro-Nitish Kumar Speaker at the helm. The Speaker had, in the run-up to the trust vote, de-recognised the BJP as the principal Opposition and instead passed the mantle to the Janata Dal (United) led by the Nitish Kumar faction.
There was also confusion over the seating arrangements. Nonetheless, Mr Manjhi's pre-emptive action robbed the House and the State some dramatic moments and, from all accounts, taken the BJP by surprise. But the act has been done, and the State will have a new Chief Minister soon. From all indications, Mr Nitish Kumar is returning at the helm. While it is true that Mr Manjhi's bluff of majority support in the House has been called and that he may have suffered political damage in the process, it is equally a fact that Mr Nitish Kumar's gameplan of making a comeback through the backdoor has been exposed.
The former Chief Minister had been accusing the BJP of having scripted the drama which has led to political turmoil in Bihar, but he cannot escape from the reality that his growing disquiet over Mr Manjhi's increasing independence in functioning as the Chief Minister actually triggered the move to oust the latter. Mr Nitish Kumar had wanted Mr Manjhi to behave like a puppet.As long as Mr Manjhi remained constrained, which he was in the initial months in office as he came to grips with the position, he was acceptable. But the moment he began to grow wings, Mr Nitish Kumar's camp moved swiftly to clip them.
The other fact is that Mr Nitish Kumar had desperately wanted to make a comeback after having voluntarily given up the Chief Minister's chair in Mr Manjhi's favour some nine months ago after his party faced a rout in the lok Sabha election in the State. Mr Manjhi's independent streak and his warmth towards leaders of the BJP gave his mentor the perfect opportunity to do. Plans to oust Mr Manjhi began in right earnest in collaboration with lalu Prasad's Rashtriya Janata Dal. However, the Mahadalit leader, surprisingly for the Nitish Kumar camp, proved to be no pushover. He began to blatantly play every card he had — from the 'slight' to a Mahadalit to offers of ministerial berths to MlAs who would switch to his side — to browbeat his opponents.
The Bihar drama may be over, but the political churning has not ended. Bihar is headed for interesting times ahead of the Assembly election scheduled for later this year. The new political equations, present and potential, will have a bearing on the electoral result. We may not have heard the last of Mr Manjhi.