Ceasefire violations by Pakistan will derail talks
Union Minister for Defence Arun Jaitley has said during his visit to Jammu & Kashmir that “talks and aggression cannot go together”. He was responding to the latest instance of violation of the ceasefire agreement by troops of Pakistan along the line of Control, in which one Indian soldier lost his life. There have been many such violations in the past and the Government of India (then the Congress-led UPA) had spoken along similar lines. But those remarks had little impact on Islamabad. However, with a new Bharatiya Janata Party-led Government that has promised a strong response to such aggression, in place, there is reason to believe that it will not be business as usual. In the first place, the Army now has a clear mandate to respond as belligerently as it considers fit to such violations, without undue concern for the political fallouts. Also, unlike in the past, continued ceasefire violations will actually derail the process of talks that may have been on the anvil in the near months between the two countries. An atmosphere of goodwill has been created with the recent visit of Pakistan's Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to India, along with other heads of Governments of South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation nations, to attend Mr Modi's swearing-in ceremony. It is expected that the momentum will be carried forward towards not just a peaceful resolution of issues that have troubled bilateral relations for decades but also to enhance trade, commerce and people-to-people exchanges between India and Pakistan. Unfortunately, all of this can land into rough weather if the Pakistani military continues to target Indian posts at the loC. Mr Sharif must understand that his Army can torpedo the hard gains of a democratic process if he fails to rein it.
This is easier said than done. Recent developments do not want warrant much hope. Despite the decisive mandate he has received from the people, Mr Sharif is yet to be in complete control. A report in the recent issue of The Economist has pointed to the growing friction between his civil administration and the Army, with Rawalpindi clearly unwilling to give the Pakistani Prime Minister the leeway to forge a new chapter in India-Pakistan relations. While it is for Mr Sharif to deal with these challenges, his failure to do so will have consequences for India.
Meanwhile, India must not allow the fresh though tentative thaw in ties as a result of the Modi-Sharif meeting to lead to complacency. The recent threat by Al Qaeda to send “caravans” of jihadis into Kashmir in the wake of the withdrawal of US-led troops from Afghanistan, causes concern. These jihadis will be without work after their ‘enemy' leaves Afghanistan and are going to seek a new battleground — and Kashmir is one of them. The Modi regime has already begun receiving briefings on the prospect. and it is to be hoped that it will not be pusillanimous as its predecessor was in rising to the occasion.