For long, the country has had troubled relations with its eastern neighbours, Thailand and China. Yet, Bangkok and Beijing remain far more engaged and invested in Myanmar’s development than Delhi
With a population of 60 million and a ruling elite and military made up primarily of Bamars (Burmese), who constitute approximately 68 per cent of its population, Myanmar today is perhaps the most seriously insurgency affected country in the world. Richly endowed in natural resources ranging from oil to rubies and perhaps the most fertile lands in Asia, Myanmar has constantly confronted troubles along its borders with its eastern neighbours Thailand and China. The country has 135 distinct ethnic groups ranging from Christian Karen and Kachin on its borders with Thailand and China, to Muslim Rohingyas on its borders with Bangladesh.
Ethnic insurgencies have torn the country apart ever since its birth. The Christian Karens took objection to Myanmar proclaiming itself as a Buddhist state shortly after independence in 1948. They were the favourites of the British and the best armed group in the country. They came close to overrunning the capital Rangoon in 1949. Prime Minister U Nu and his Government survived largely because of shiploads of military equipment from India. Ethnic insurgency amidst political infighting led to Prime Minister U Ba Swe asking the army chief Ne Win to take over the Government in 1958 and later impose military rule in 1962. The Ne Win period was marked by continuing ethnic insurgencies, exacerbated by China’s assistance till the 1980s, to the Burmese Communist Party, mainly operating through the Shan State and the Kachin State, straddling Burma’s borders with India and China. While the military regime’s General Khin Nyunt negotiated ceasefire agreements with most ethnic armed groups, ethnic conflicts have revived in the recent past.
Shortly after Aung San Suu Kyi and her supporters entered Parliament, ethnic tensions between the Muslim Rohingyas and the Bamar Buddhist majority revived in the Rakhine (Arakan) Province bordering Bangladesh. Over 1,15,000 people, mostly Muslim Rohingyas, were displaced. The Myanmar Government permitted visits by independent observers from foreign Governments and international organisations, after the army moved in and restored order. Myanmar’s influential Buddhist clergy were supportive of the violence perpetrated on those they believed were ‘outsiders’ from Bangladesh. Sensing the public sentiment, Ms Suu Kyi remained silent. Myanmar officials openly say that while India is a secular country which can absorb demographic changes along its borders, Buddhist Myanmar is a small country which is in no position to do so. Strangely, there was a violent agitation in Mumbai against the Myanmar Government for alleged ‘atrocities’ against Muslims. One wonders whether a similar demonstration would be organised against the killings of thousands of Shias and Sufi Bareilvis in Pakistan.
The Myanmar army recently stepped up offensive operations against Kachin separatists close to the Myanmar-China-India tri-junction. The Chinese have attempted to broker a ceasefire at the border town of Ruili. Talks on this issue were held between the Myanmar Peace Making Committee and the Kachin Independence Organisation in Ruili on February 4. Indian insurgent groups like the Ulfa, NSCN- IM and the PlA and their leaders like Paresh Barua use the Kachin State as a safe haven and for getting weapons through China. There has been cooperation and exchange of information between the armies of India and Myanmar in dealing with cross border insurgencies, for over two decades now.
Myanmar and Thailand have been adversaries for centuries. In recent times, Thailand has provided haven to Christian Karen insurgents, resulting in cross border shootouts. But, across Myanmar’s eastern Shan State bordering Thailand and China, ethnic conflicts continue, with several armed groups ranging from the Karen Independence Army to the United Wa State Army — a long-term Chinese protégé. But, under pressure from donors from Japan and the Western powers, it appears that serious moves are underway to seek a political solution to the ethnic conflicts. Eleven ethnic armed groups have formed a United Nationalities Federal Council. Talks have been held in Chiang Mai in Thailand between the insurgents and a high level Ministerial team headed by Presidential Minister Aung Min. The talks covered the framework for a political dialogue and related issues. It does, however, appear that the Myanmar Government will, for the present maintain military pressure on the armed groups, even as talks proceed.
China cannot but be concerned as Myanmar seeks new avenues of cooperation with the Western world, Japan and others. Some of its prestige projects, like the letpadaung copper mine, a joint venture between its Wanbao Company and the Myanmar military, are in the doldrums after a Parliamentary Commission under Ms Suu Kyi was established to investigate the project. This followed the suspension of another massive project, the Myitstone Dam in Kachin State, in September 2012, due to public pressure. It is no secret that lands in major urban centres like Mandalay are being increasingly taken over by the Chinese. While the military Government looked the other way, public resentment against what is seen as Chinese exploitation is growing. But, it would be naïve to believe that all this will substantially weaken the immense Chinese political, military and diplomatic influence in Myanmar, for the present.
While China, Thailand, and its partners at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations have acted efficiently, expeditiously and effectively in projects undertaken in Myanmar, India’s performance has been pathetic. Thailand is today the largest market for natural gas from Myanmar, receiving all 8.6 million cubic metres of current gas production. It is planning on developing port terminals for remaining a major recipient of Myanmar’s proven gas reserves of 200 billion cubic metres. A Sino-Myanmar pipeline will soon be carrying gas to China’s Yunnan Province. India was given a contract for offshore gas exploration. But, thanks to delays in planning for a pipeline and a hare-brained scheme to take Myanmar gas to India through Bangladesh, Myanmar became frustrated with India and offered the gas to China. The much touted Kaladan Multi-Modal Corridor to link our North-Eastern States to the sea through Myanmar’s Sittwe port is running behind schedule. After agreeing to undertake an 1,800 MW hydro-electric Project in 1994, we have not yet prepared a detailed project report. While we have a constructed a road linking Tamu on the Manipur border to Mandalay, through Kalemyo, the road is used mainly for smuggling goods to India, because of our restrictive border trade regulations. The redeeming feature is that South Block has resisted political considerations and is sending our highly competent Ambassador to Kabul, Gautam Mukhopadhyaya, as our next envoy to Myanmar.