But can the ceasefire hold long enoughIJ
Syria's cessation of hostilities agreement has so many holes that it is unlikely to hold up at all. Yet, this deal was the best that the international community could have hoped for in the war-torn country — a reflection of the complicated ground situation where multiple groups are fighting each other. Perhaps, the deal will make more sense if it is not just viewed from a strategic or political perspective but also seen as a small window of opportunity for aid agencies trying to reach beleaguered Syrians, desperate for food, medicines and essential supplies.
Since the agreement was finalised on Tuesday, aid convoys have already reached five besieged towns including the Damascus suburbs of Moadamiyeh and Kfar Batna. The UN World Food Programme is also expected to start airdropping food packages on other cities that have been inaccessible all this while because they have been surrounded by Islamic State forces. The focus will be on the eastern city of Deir al-Zour which has more than 2,00,000 residents but the UN estimates that as many as 4,80,000 people are trapped in 18 such encircled cities and towns. The world body has requested full, unimpeded and sustained access to all locations, and it is hoped that this agreement will be able to deliver at least in this regard.
Aid supply apart, the deal has little else to offer: For one, it does not mark an end to the fighting. Operations will continue against the Islamic State and the Al Nusra Front, which were not part of the semi-ceasefire deal and are UN-recognised terror groups. Second, it will be next to impossible to monitor ceasefire violations and even more difficult to penalise the offenders in any which way. Russia has reportedly opened a coordination centre at the Hmeymim air base to help enforce the ceasefire in but only time will tell its effectiveness. Third, there are significant differences among the parties on who comes under the ambit of the ceasefire and to what extent.
For example, one group of Kurdish fighters has said that it will not take a break from the fighting because it is targeting the Islamic State and, therefore, will have to be excluded. More importantly, the Syrian Government of President Bashar al-Assad has said that it reserves the right to continue fighting against the Islamic State, Al Nusra as well as all other terrorists — the problem here is that the Assad Government considers any group that is opposed to it, to be a terrorist. This renders the entire deal meaningless from a strategic point of view.
Also, the Syrian Army has been gaining territory in recent weeks, especially now that it has Russian support in the air alongwith Iranian support on the ground. It will be waiting to pounce on any opportunity to resume fighting. But all said and done, the deal still represents a tiny ray of hope — not because it may offer a respite from the carnage any time soon but because it may be the first of many steps towards a negotiated settlement.