In Assam, a strong AGP-BJP-BPF alliance, changing demographics, a split in the Muslim vote bank and anti-incumbency has put the Congress on the back foot. The BJP definitely has an edge in the State
The two-phased Assembly election in Assam, held on April 4 and April 11, to elect representatives from 126 constituencies, was a neck-to-neck fight between the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party which had a pre-poll alliance with the Asom Gana Parishad, the Bodoland People’s Front and two smaller players representing the Tiwa and Rabha communities. While the Congress cannot afford to lose Assam, its last major bastion in the North-East, the BJP has to reclaim the political supremacy it established in the 2014 lok Sabha polls but eroded after the losses in Bihar and Delhi.
Before the 2014 lok Sabha election, the BJP had been a peripheral player in Assam. Its best tally was in 2006 when it won 10 Assembly seats. The party has only five seats in the outgoing Assembly. In the 2014 lok Sabha election, the BJP made significant gains in Assam, winning a whopping vote share of 36.5 per cent and leading in 69 assembly segments out of total 126 seats in lok Sabha constituencies. An electoral victory in Assam will open the gates of North-East India for the BJP.
Since independence, Assam politics has revolved around the grand old party — from 1951 to 1978, the Congress won every Assembly and general election in Assam. It faced defeat for the first time in 1978 when it got only 26 out of 126 seats. A coalition of the Janata Party, the Communist Party of India and Plains Tribal Council of Assam formed the first non-Congress Government.
The period between 1979 and 1985 was marked by instability due to the movement against illegal immigrants from Bangladesh. A stable Government was formed after the Assam Accord was signed in 1985. The agitating leaders formed the Asom Gana Parishad, which contested the Assembly election in December that year and swept the polls.
The Congress returned to power in 2001 but since then has held its position with Tarun Gogoi as Chief Minister. But Gogoi, after three consecutive terms, is facing a strong anti-incumbency sentiment. Also, dissent by some Congress legislators has affected the last term of the Gogoi Government. In fact, 10 legislators, led by Himanta Biswa Sarma, have now moved to the BJP.
Assam is an ethnically diverse State, and this factor comes out prominently in its political processes. Assam has five main regional divisions: North Assam (Udalguri, Darrang and Sonitpur), Upper Assam (lakhimpur, Dibrugarh, Dhemaji, Tinsukia, Sibsagar, Jorhat and Golaghat), Central Assam (Dima Hasao, Karbi Anglong, Nagaon and Marigaon), lower Assam (Dhubri, Kokrajhar, Bongaigaon, Goalpara, Baksa, Chirang, Barpeta, Nalbari and Kamrup) and the Barak Valley (Cachar, Karimganj and Hailakandi).
The BJP has projected Sarbananda Sonowal, a tribal, as its chief ministerial candidate to win the big chunk of tribal community votes. Scheduled Tribes, alongwith six other communities (Koch Rajbongshi, Tai Ahom, Moran, Motok, Chutia and Adivasi) are demanding inclusion in the ST list, and together comprise more than 53 per cent of the State’s total population. The two hill districts, Karbi Anglong and North Cachar Hills, are predominantly inhabited by STs. In the plains districts, ST population is highest in Dhemaji (47.29 per cent) followed by Kokrajhar (33.67 per cent) and lakhimpur (23.49 per cent).
The BJP has aligned with the BPF to cement its position in Bodo districts. The Bodos (a plains tribe) dominate four large Bodoland districts of Kokrajhar, Baksa, Chirang and Udalguri in lower Assam and will determine the fate of 16 seats. The Congress contested the election in an ‘understanding’ with the Bodo heartland-based United People’s Party to counter the BJP-BPF coalition. A third force in Bodoland is the Sanmilita Janagosthiya Aikya Mancha, a conglomerate of non-tribal groups in Bodoland which won the Kokrajhar lok Sabha seat in the 2014 election.
A high decadal growth of the Muslim population in 2001-2011 has also profoundly impacted Assam’s demography. The rapid growth of the Muslim population in Bodoland has triggered violent skirmishes in the region. The 2012 conflagration between Bodos and Bengali-speaking Muslims had left over 100 dead and four lakh people displaced. The people are worried about this situation, which will only add to the anti-incumbency factor — to the benefit of the BJP.
Out of the 126 Assembly constituencies in Assam, there are 40 constituencies where the Muslim vote-bank is in a position to determine the electoral outcome. The All India United Democratic Front, led by Badruddin Ajmal, enjoys a definite advantage in these constituencies. Notably, the majority of Assamese-speaking Muslims, concentrated in Upper Assam, prefer the Congress, while Bengali-speaking Muslims, mostly living in lower Assam, prefer the AIUDF.
The tea tribes are another important socio-economic group, accounting for more than nine per cent votes in the State. They are particularly significant in Sivasagar, Sonitpur, Tinsukia, Dibrugarh, Golaghat, Jorhat and Kokrajhar districts. They have been the traditional Congress voters but in 2014 shifted to the BJP.
The Congress has an advantage in Barak Valley which has 15 seats in the 126-member Assam Assembly. In 2011, Congress won 13 seats of the total of 15 seats in the Barrack Valley. The party also won the Silchar lok Sabha constituency in the 2014 general election. However, it will have to face stiff challenge from both the BJP and the AIUDF in the upcoming polls.
The BJP has an edge in this State, which has a history of Congress dominance, mainly because of the following factors: First, the alliance with AGP and BPF puts the BJP in an advantageous position against the Congress which went solo in this election except for an ‘understanding’ with the United People’s Party in the Bodoland Territorial Area District.
Second, the changing the demography of Assam due to illegal Bangladeshi immigrants has accumulated resentment against foreigners in the minds of Assamese Hindus and tribal communities. The fear in their minds after seeing the 2011 Census report is that “immigrants” will outnumber them. This has consolidated the Assamese Hindu and tribal vote-bank for the BJP.
Third, Muslim votes have been split between the AIDUF and the Congress. This, again, will help the BJP which had also gained from a similar split in the 2014 poll. Finally, the Congress is losing its grip on its overall vote-bank due to the strong anti-incumbency sentiment stemming from a 15-year-long stint.
(The author is a professor at the Department of Political Science, University of Delhi)