Coming State elections have national bearing
With the Election Commission of India announcing poll dates to the five Assemblies of Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry, parties have begun to gear up for the battle, either on their own or with coalition partners. In some cases, alliances have been confirmed and in others they are being worked out. This is an important development since coalitions that work out well now could be carried forward in the 2019 lok Sabha election. The stakes are high for the Congress, which rules two of the States but is struggling to retain them. The Bharatiya Janata Party does not have the pressure to retain any since it rules none, but it still has to bear the burden of expectations in Assam where it entertains hopes of toppling the Congress and winning a State after registering losses in Delhi and Bihar. In addition, a victory in Assam will come as a major boost for the BJP ahead of the crucial Assembly election in Uttar Pradesh early the following year. Besides, riding on its good showing in local body elections in Kerala, the party is looking to make a modest start in the southern State. Regional parties are sitting strong in at least two of the four State Assemblies — in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal — and also Puducherry, where a breakaway faction of the Congress rules. Put together, the Assembly polls are going to be a mini general election, given that it encompasses a voting population of 17 crore. But it's not just the number that matters. If the Congress fails to perform well, it can say goodbye to an immediate revival at the national level following the drubbing it received in the 2014 lok Sabha election. The Congress realises the stakes are high, which is why it has swallowed its pride and announced a tie-up with the DMK, a party that had walked out of the UPA alliance ahead of the lok Sabha election, in Tamil Nadu. It knows that it cannot take on the J Jayalalithaa-led AIADMK on its own. But even this arrangement is not a guarantee for success. Tamil Nadu is proving to be a tricky ground for the BJP too; it has been trying to forge alliances but in vain so far. The rainbow coalition it had stitched for the 2014 lok Sabha election has disintegrated, with the erstwhile partners either contesting on their own or veering towards either of the two major Dravidian parties. Eventually, the State will decide whether the DMK gets a new lease of life. If this happens, the Congress, riding piggyback, too will benefit. This will impact the national scene.
West Bengal is the other State, apart from Tamil Nadu, where the Congress is weak and seeking to gain ground with support from like-minded parties. Ms Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress is sitting pretty there, but the Congress believes it has a good chance of making a dent in collaboration with the left Front. The problem is of convincing voters. They have reason to be confused; the Congress and the left parties are fighting as bitter rivals in Kerala while wanting to waltz in West Bengal. Finally, for the Communist Party of India (Marxist)-led coalition, it is a make-or-break election in Kerala and West Bengal. If it fails to oust the Congress in the former and the Trinamool Congress in the latter, it will further lose its relevance at the national stage.