New India-Pak dialogue faces old challenges
The importance of dialogue and diplomacy between India and Pakistan, if a durable peace has to be forged, needs no explanation; just as one need not list the many challenges that such a peace process faces. It’s a difficult situation, no doubt, but the only way forward is to persist with the talks, hoping that a different set of dynamics might, ultimately, bring different results. Today, two issues lie at the core of the India-Pakistan problem: Pakistan-sponsored terrorism on Indian soil, and Kashmir. Notably, the ground situation on both issues have been evolving (compare Kashmir of the 1990s with Kashmir today, or see how Pakistan’s approach to terrorism may be slowly changing as the jihadi monsters it nourished now threatens to gobble up the country).
Perhaps, there is an opportunity here to make real progress — India and Pakistan have have diplomatic successes on contentious issues before, and there is no reason why it can’t be done again. At the same time, it is equally possible that the latest engagement announced by Minister for External Affairs Sushma Swaraj will be just another step in the on-again-off-again bilateral process. The new Comprehensive Bilateral Dialogue isn't all that different from what previous Governments had been pursuing, with only two new topics having been added. The question is: Will the new dialogue bring different resultsIJ There’s no way to tell for sure.
Perhaps, the two Governments could start by discussing how to ‘protect’ the dialogue process from the kind of shocks and jolts that have derailed previous efforts. Because of the stunted nature of the India-Pakistan relationship, neither party has enough levers with the other that can be used to control a difficult situation. As a result, every time there is a bilateral crisis, the first and only significant response option that is available to the political leadership is to call off the talks.
This has been the case ever since India and Pakistan began the structured composite dialogue process. Started in 1997, the talks were disrupted after the 1999 Kargil conflict, which was followed by 2001 attacks on the Red Fort and on Parliament. The dialogue was brought back on track in late 2003 with a ceasefire violation agreement that held peace on the line of Control for about a decade. Between 2003 and 2007, a fair amount of progress was made but the 2008 Mumbai attack reversed all the gains. It also added Pakistan-sponsored jihadi terror as a major issue to the dialogue — which resumed in 2011 only to be disrupted after the January 2013 lOC crisis.
Since May 2014, the Modi Government has had a mixed record in its negotiations with Pakistan. In recent weeks, however, there has been an uptick in bilateral diplomacy. First, Prime Ministers Narendra Modi and Nawaz Sharif held discussions in Paris on November 30; within days, their respective NSAs and Foreign Secretaries met in Bangkok; and now, Ms Swaraj has announced the CBD in Pakistan. Some commentators have said that this marks a reversal in the Modi Government's previously ‘muscular' Pakistan policy. This is not entirely correct: Neither the Prime Minister nor any his foreign policy team has ever been opposed to talks with Pakistan; it was only a matter of finding the right set-up.