Individual-centric opposition has short shelf-life
One of the most speculated possibilities discussed in the aftermath of the Bihar Assembly election result is the formation of a broad ‘anti-Narendra Modi front’ to counter the Bharatiya Janata Party not just in the 2019 lok Sabha election but also in the Assembly elections to be held in the interim period. It is being said that Chief Ministers Mamata Banerjee, Nitish Kumar and Arvind Kejriwal could be part of this combine, with others such as lalu Prasad's Rashtriya Janata Dal providing it further strength. It is not clear at this moment if the Congress will strike deals with this potential loose alliance, buoyed by the Bihar experiment; just as it is not known if the other major regional parties such as the DMK or those of the left will be part of any such grouping, directly or indirectly. But while political parties are free to have coalitions to boost their electoral prospects by leveraging their strengths and minimising their weaknesses in the process, it must be kept in mind that history is clear on one issue: Arrangements that are made solely to counter an individual have collapsed more than once. Various political groupings came together under the Janata Party umbrella with the only aim to oust Indira Gandhi from power. They succeeded, but the anti-Indira Gandhi glue did not hold for long. Similarly, the anti-Rajiv Gandhi combine of the Janata Dal, which began its journey as the Jan Morcha led by VP Singh, failed within months. The Janata Dal crumbled, and some constituents actually went on to form the Government with the Congress's support! The failure of VP Singh's experiment was spectacular because it happened despite beginning with the support of opposite poles — the BJP and the left parties, both vehemently opposed to Rajiv Gandhi. Closer in time, the Congress and many others faced a humiliating defeat in the 2014 lok Sabha election because they conducted their electoral campaign entirely against Mr Modi's persona. The more they condemned and reviled him, the stronger he emerged.
That apart, the other issue is one of depth of the alliance the hopefuls are looking for. There are powerful regional parties such as the AIADMK in Tamil Nadu and the Biju Janata Dal in Odisha that are unlikely to join the potential force. While they have issues with the Modi-led Government, they have not been hostile enough to turn into political enemies. Then there is Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav's Samajwadi Party and Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party. It is not clear if they will partner the dreamt-of alliance. After all, Mr Yadav had walked out of the ‘grand alliance' which he was supposed to helm, in the run-up to the Bihar Assembly election, and contested against both the RJD and the Janata Dal (United). And, let alone having a presence in a national front, the SP and the BSP are unlikely to join hands even to combat the BJP in their stronghold, Uttar Pradesh. None will want to cede the ‘home advantage' to the other.