Yet another child of the Arab uprising collapses
The worsening crisis in Yemen poses a major challenge for India at multiple levels. At the top of the list is ensuring the safety of Indian nationals in that country. Yemen, like most other West Asian nations, has traditionally had a large Indian expatriate workforce, but the numbers have dwindled significantly since the Arab uprising of 2011, which unleashed waves of political instability and civil wars across the region. According to Government estimates, there are currently only about 3,500 Indians in Yemen, down from about 11,000 to 12,000 workers three years ago. Most of them are based in the capital city of Sana'a while a few hundred work in Aden and Hudaydah. The Ministry of External Affairs has already issued three advisories — two in recent days and one in January when the Houthi rebels had started to gain ground in Yemen — and set up helplines in New Delhi. It is putting together emergency plans to evacuate Indian citizens by road (to Saudi Arabia) and ship (to Djibouti).
The Government of India has a reasonable amount of experience in these matters, having conducted large-scale rescue operations during the Gulf War (the biggest civilian evacuation mission till date) and the 2006 lebanon war. More recently, it evacuated citizens from libya in 2011 and Iraq in 2014. However, this is always a daunting task with no guarantee of success, as the case of 39 Indians who remain untraceable in Iraq, reminds us. There are many challenges at hand. For example, apart from the pressures of operating in a war zone, the Government has to deal with workers who are reluctant to leave because they don't understand the gravity of the situation; many others are forcibly held back by exploitative employers. There is also a group of illegal workers that prefers to stay away from official channels.
At another level, India will have to form a coherent response to the crisis from a geo-strategic point of view. Yemen has been on the downslide ever since President Ali Abdullah Saleh quit office in 2012 at the height of the Arab uprising. His successor failed to hold the country together and was finally chased out by Houthi rebels, reportedly backed by Iran, earlier this week. However, the crisis has taken on a larger proportion after Saudi Arabia, the US and seven other countries joined hands to militarily intervene in Yemen. Notably, Pakistan is also seriously considering joining the coalition on Saudi Arabia's request.
Two factors explain this global response to Yemen. The first is that Yemen is strategically located — its Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the south links the Gulf of Aden to the Arabian Sea and serves as a passageway for at least 3.8 million barrels of oil everyday. There are fears that the Houthis may shut down the port and already oil prices have started rising. The second factor is that Yemen has long been at the heart of America's counter-terrorism strategy in West Asia, which now lies in tatters, even as Islamist terror organisations overrun the region.