Is the Shiv Sena over-estimating itselfIJ
The Shiv Sena's decision to break the alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) for the upcoming Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation election brings an unfortunate end to a long-standing arrangement that had benefited both these parties for close to two decades. While the immediate reason for the Shiv Sena's move has apparently got to do with differences over the number of seats to be contested by each party, the acrimony between the two goes back to at least two-and-a-half years. It was around that time when the BJP had decided to contest both the Assembly election and the lok Sabha election on its own, without aligning with the Shiv Sena. While many experts then had believed that the BJP was over-estimating its strengths, the results of both the elections showed that it was, in fact, the Shiv Sena, which had over-estimated itself. The BJP on its own did pretty well and at one point in time, soon after the Maharashtra Assembly election result was out, it appeared that the BJP would tie up with the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) for the State Government’s formation, and shut the Shiv Sena out. However, due to intense lobbying by well-wishers on both the sides, the BJP and the Shiv Sena got together again. But the Shiv Sena continued to carry the old bitterness. Every now and then, it kept snapping at the BJP, and more worryingly at Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Whether it was the demonetisation decision or the Union Government's policy on Pakistan, the Shiv Sena, through remarks by its leaders, and through editorials in its mouthpiece Saamana, relentlessly condemned the Prime Minister and his party. It had become increasingly clear that the tenability of the relationship between these two old allies had come under strain. Given this backdrop, and the fact that the Shiv Sena, for some reason, wants to strike out on its own, the collapse of the alliance for the upcoming civic poll has not come as much of a surprise.
What will now be interesting to watch is whether the Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray takes the next step forward, which is to reconsider ties with the BJP at the State Government and at the national level. While Uddhav Thackeray has, for now said unambiguously that the Shiv Sena's electoral alliance with the BJP in the State Government and the Union Government will remain, it is difficult to imagine that there can be a long-term sustainability. If the Shiv Sena is not breaking off the ties for now at the State and national levels, it's not because it has any love left for the BJP. The Shiv Sena understands that in the given political environment, Prime Minister Modi has a high popularity rating. Moreover, there is the NCP factor lurking in the background. It may be recalled that the NCP had extended unconditional support to the BJP soon after the last Assembly result had been announced. Interestingly, NCP supremo Sharad Pawar has been recently conferred the Padma Vibhushan — and the importance of this gesture is not lost on anyone. On being asked about supporting the BJP Government in Maharashtra, Pawar said that nobody had yet approached him and that if such a request came, his party would consider it. This is a good enough indication of a possible new political alignment, if push comes to shove.