BJP-AGP alliance hots up the electoral battle
While it is still early to judge the Bharatiya Janata Party's chances of forming a Government in Assam, its alliance with the Asom Gana Parishad, announced on Thursday, makes it a strong contender. Add to this, the party’s existing tie-up with the Bodoland People's Front, which controls the Bodoland Territorial Council and can be expected to bring in the Adivasi votes (which the BJP has also been courting with a slew of special measures), and there is no doubt that the BJP-led alliance will be a force to reckon with in the coming Assembly election. The alliance is also a strong response to the incumbent Congress's tie-up with the All India United Democratic Front (which will lead to a formidable consolidation of the Muslim vote-bank). One area of concern here is the apparent displeasure of the rank and file of the AGP and the BJP with the new alliance. The AGP was upset about the number of seats it had been offered — initially, it had demanded about 30 seats but has since reportedly agreed to about 25 seats. On the other hand, the State unit of the BJP wasn't too happy about the overlap between the areas of influence of its chief ministerial candidate Sarbanand Sonowal and those of its alliance partner: Upper Assam. Nevertheless, it seems like the top leadership of both parties is committed to the tie-up, and it has to be trusted to bring colleagues and party workers on board. The AGP and the BJP had fought the 2009 parliamentary election together and they should be able to find common ground now.
The electoral arithmetic also seems to be working in favour of the BJP-AGP-BPF alliance. During the 2014 election, the BJP won seven of the 14 lok Sabha seats from Assam, with 36 per cent votes; the AGP drew a blank, polling 3.7 per cent of the votes; and the BPF secured 2.1 per cent of the votes. In comparison, the Congress and the AIUDF won three lok Sabha seats each with 29.5 per cent votes and 14.8 per cent votes respectively. If these trends hold this year, then the BJP and its alliance should have a fair chance of winning the State. Of course, no two elections are alike, and a prime ministerial vote for Candidate Modi may not necessarily translate into a chief ministerial vote for Candidate Sonowal. But even then, the numbers point to a good fight.
Assam is politically the most prominent State in the North-East, and given how the Modi administration has prioritised the region, the BJP will be looking forward to forming the Government. Besides, Assam has largely been under the rule of one party since the country’s independence. Except for two terms with the Asom Gana Parishad and a year-and-a-half with the erstwhile Janata Party at the helm, it is the Congress that has governed the State all these years. Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi alone has held power for 15 years now. Therefore, his challenge is also to battle anti-incumbency.