It all boils down to what the Trinamool leader wants. If she wants to fight the left more than she wishes to decimate the Congress, she has to strike a deal with the latter. But the move will revive the Congress
By-election results from Bihar and Gujarat excited political pundits and took a large slice of news coverage in the past week. Relatively under-reported and under-analysed was the Howrah lok Sabha constituency by-election in West Bengal. The Trinamool Congress retained the seat by a reduced margin, beating the CPI(M) candidate by 27,000 votes. The Congress, which had supported the Trinamool in 2009 but put up a spoiler nominee this time, walked away with 10 per cent of the electorate and about 96,000 votes.
To be fair, it was a close call. The BJP has pockets of influence in Howrah, an industrial, largely urban district just across the river from Calcutta. It did not put up a candidate. As even senior Trinamool functionaries admitted, the BJP could have pulled in “at least 30,000 votes”. No doubt not all of these would have come at the expense of Trinamool. The Congress would almost certainly have lost some of its eventual voters to the BJP. Nevertheless, what was in the end a conclusive victory for Prasun Banerjee — the former football star who is Trinamool’s newest MP — could well have been a close call.
What does this by-election result tell us of Mamata Banerjee's political situation a year before parliamentary electionsIJ A detailed look at the Howrah verdict would suggest Trinamool has lost some votes in the urban areas, and declined from its maximalist peak in its south Bengal bastions in 2009 and 2011. However it was so far ahead of the CPI(M) in urban seats in and around Calcutta that a marginal decline in vote share makes little difference. In the one rural segment of the constituency, Trinamool has done well, indicating it is still the rising force in rural Bengal and still seen as the new energy that can displace an old order defined by the CPI(M). Finally, in one assembly segment dominated by Muslims, Trinamool led by about 10,000 votes.
Howrah is only one seat and is hardly representative of all of West Bengal. Even so, it is all we have with us and all Ms Banerjee has with her. What do the numbers add up toIJ What do they foretell, if they foretell anything at allIJ
In 2009, Trinamool and the Congress fought the election together. Of West Bengal’s 42 lok Sabha seats, these two parties won 25:19 for Trinamool and six for the Congress. The SUCI, a third party in the alliance, won a single seat. The left Front was reduced to 15 seats, its worst performance in over 30 years. The BJP won one seat, Darjeeling. As the Howrah election makes apparent, there is still a persuasive argument to be made for a tie-up between Trinamool and the Congress. Arithmetically, this combination is very strong. In the recent by-poll it could have given the Trinamool candidate a 1,00,000 vote victory. In 2014, it could reduce the left Front to 10-12 seats.
However, politics is not just arithmetic, it calls for chemistry too. A year ago, Ms Banerjee took a call that the Congress was a sinking ship, was vastly unpopular in Bengal and the rest of India and would pay the price for 10 years of incumbency. She walked out of the UPA Government, accused the Congress of corruption, misgovernance, insensitivity, economic ruin. For better or worse, she has been consistent in that position. For her to approach the Congress now for an alliance is extremely unlikely. It will make her appear fickle and defensive. Also, it will allow the CPI(M)-led left Front to take advantage of any anti-UPA mood in the lok Sabha campaign.
What happens if there is a three-way contestIJ Political assessments are bleak for the Congress. On its own, with the bulk of party support having migrated to Trinamool, the Congress can achieve little. It is relevant in, really, two districts: Murshidabad and Malda, along with neighbouring North Dinajpur. In Malda-North Dinajpur, the Congress has three MPs, including two current Union ministers. Ms Banerjee cannot replace the Congress here but can hurt it. The advantage in these north Bengal constituencies will then swing to the CPI(M), which has been trying to upstage the Congress in Malda since the death of ABA Ghani Khan Chowdhury in 2006.
In such a scenario, the Congress, left alone, could well be reduced to a two-three seat party in West Bengal and would be facing permanent and irreversible atrophy in the State. The BJP, presumably led by Narendra Modi, would obviously not repeat its Howrah favour and would want to put up candidates across the State to exploit its national mascot’s perceived appeal. This could give the BJP one or two seats (including Darjeeling, which it already holds) but also take away votes from all other parties, including the Congress in urban areas.
If the two national parties win say four or five seats between them, what happens to the rest of West BengalIJ It is a fair estimate that the remaining 37-38 seats will be divided nearly equally between Trinamool and the left Front. The cracking of the mahajot (grand alliance) of 2009-2011 will allow the CPI(M) to if not recover ground at least arrest decline in some areas. As such, it is possible the left Front may win a seat or two more than Trinamool or a seat or two less.
Will this mean a Trinamool defeat and a CPI(M) recovery in the 2016 Assembly electionIJ Not necessarily; it depends on whether Ms Banerjee holds her nerve. The CPI(M) continues to face challenges in West Bengal as to its leadership and its programmatic identity. Also, it is likely what little remains of the Congress will inevitably move into the Trinamool embrace after 2014. This will make Trinamool a formidable force in 2016, though admittedly not an unbeatable one.
The big question before Ms Banerjee is this: Does she want to cripple the CPI(M) in 2014 or does she want to destroy the CongressIJ The first entails going back to the Congress alliance, but that will revive a troublesome ally. The second offers a high risk-high gain alternative. That is the message from Howrah.
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