Writing is on the wall; Maldives must read it
Former Maldivian President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom is mistaken if he really believes that it is the US, and not China, which poses a threat to peace and stability in the Indian Ocean region. China's continued belligerence and its aggressive nationalist posturing remains a significant cause for concern. The brazenness with which it has sought to lord over the South China Sea has astonished every other country that would like to keep the world's busiest sea lanes open for business. Similarly, the manner in which it has been bullying its neighbours — who really are no match for China, be it militarily or economically —has only served to pump up the threat perception that is forming around the Asian giant. From its attempts to wrest control of the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands from Japan to positioning thousands of troops in the disputed areas of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir to even intruding deep inside Indian territory in yet another blatant attempt to antagonise New Delhi, China, despite being a global powerhouse, has behaved in a manner that is unbecoming of one.
Mr Gayoom seemingly does not agree with this assessment. This could be, in part, because he views China as a potential patron for his country. The current regime in Male, believed to have come to power with his blessings, is already seen as cosying up to China. In fact, President Mohamed Waheed has even praised China’s policy of “non-interference” in the affairs of smaller nations, even as he secured a $500 million loan from Beijing. The Maldivian and Chinese Defence Ministers have also promised to strengthen bilateral security ties. And while Male's increasing proximity to Beijing may form the backdrop for Mr Gayoom's staunch support for China, his strident anti-US stance has most definitely been triggered by reports of an agreement between Male and Washington, DC, that may allow the Americans to set up a permanent military base in the Maldives —allowing them a toe-hold in the Indian Ocean region. However, there is no guarantee that the Status of Force Agreement will culminate in the establishment of a military base. Both Maldivian and US sources insist that SOFA is routine procedure for any security-related cooperation, which in this case is limited to Americans training Maldivian forces. Moreover, SOFA will require parliamentary approval before it can be implemented. Interestingly, alongside reports of American presence in the Maldives, there have also been reports of a similar Chinese presence. Mr Gayoom, of course, has dismissed these. Either way, it is unlikely that there will be any development in such contentious issues before the general election scheduled for September.
In the run-up to this election, New Delhi is doing well to reach out to the political establishment of the Maldives. Its poor response to the crisis in Male last year cost India some leverage in the archipelago, but efforts to undo the damage are welcome. The recently-concluded, three-day India trip of Mr Gayoom, who still wields influence in Maldivian politics, was preceded by that of the Maldivian Defence Minister. Earlier, Mr Waheed had also called on New Delhi while his predecessor visited twice — proof of a continued partnership.