Malcolm Turnbull's coup against Tony Abbott has legitimised the revolving door practice in Australian politics, wherein not the people, but newspolls and intra-party intrigues, determine the next Prime Minister
Nick Bryant of theBBC, for no reason called Canberra the “coup capital of the democratic world”, and the Australian capital lives up to its new found reputation. First there was the Kevin Rudd-Julia Gillard prime ministerial showdown and now there is the Malcolm Turnbull-Tony Abbott face-off that has exposed the toxic nature of internal politicking in Australia’s two leading political parties.
Mr Rudd was unceremoniously sacked from the Prime Minister’s post in 2010 by the powerful Australian labor Party caucus, and replaced by Ms Gillard, only to be reinstated in 2013. Mr Abbott, then the leader of the liberal Party, had derided the AlP for betraying the people’s will but also exploited the sentiment to take his party to victory in the 2013 election.
The tides have turned again, and the liberal Party itself has fallen prey to an intra-party coup led by Mr Turnbull, who challenged Mr Abbott to a leadership ballot, and won. What was the catalyst for this coupIJ The same as it was for Ms Gillard — plummeting popularity of the party in the newspolls.
In recent months, Mr Abbott’s popularity nosedived in 30 newspolls on the trot, and Mr Turnbull, who was once trounced by Mr Abbott as the party leader, used it to propel his political ambitions. In the leadership ballot, Mr Turnbull defeated Mr Abbott by 54 to 44 votes and also facilitated the re-election of Ms Julie Bishop, who was serving as Foreign Minister, as the new deputy leader.
The latest coup seems to have legitimised the revolving door practice in Australian politics wherein not the people, but newspolls and intra-party intrigues and lobbying determine who the next Prime Minister should be.
Firing his debilitating salvo at Mr Abbott before a group of reporters, Mr Turnbull claimed, “The Prime Minister has not been capable of providing the economic leadership our nation needs...we need advocacy, not slogans...we need to be truly consultative with colleagues, members of Parliament, senators and the wider public...”. He accused Mr Abbott of economic non-performance and encouraging a non-inclusive decision-making culture.
On his part, Mr Abbott who was on a tour in Adelaide, dismissed all speculations by reacting firmly, “I will not play Canberra insider games...we are not labour Party” — only to be consumed in yet another coup before the end of the day.
Post-ballot, having effected his scheme successfully, Mr Turnbull displayed more poise in the Press conference and praised Mr Abbott for signing the Free Trade Agreement with China, constituting stringent border security arrangements, and stopping immigrant boats, and agreeing to absorb 12,000 desperate Syrian and Iraqi refugees. But he lambasted Treasurer Joe Hockey’s economic policies and his failure to create jobs, boost growth and enhance prosperity.
As critics and commentators speculated, the drivers for the coup ranged from the ruling coalition’s reneging on climate change commitments, lowering of carbon emission targets and economic mismanagement to dissipating confidence amongst the Australian businesses in the Government policies. Unfortunately, for Mr Abbott, economy was not his forte, and weak advocacy on economic matters and total dependence on the Treasurer’s leadership earned him criticisms from within and without.
Ironically, Mr Turnbull did not spell out any policy changes upfront, and only hinted at a Cabinet re-shuffle, beginning with Mr Scott Morrison as the new Treasurer. On the issue of same sex-marriage and climate change, he basically endorsed Mr Abbott’s policies, which leaves the bewildered liberal supporters wondering what then was the coup all aboutIJ
Mr Turnbull now also faces the Herculean task of healing the party’s wounds, caused by the 44 disgruntled back-benchers voting against him in the ballot. He hopes to unite the diverse party room and restore the culture of consultation and inclusive decision-making that once marked the John Howard-style of leadership.
The liberals and Mr Turnbull also have much explaining to do to the National Party, their coalition partner, hoping for no demons in the deal, as and when it is renegotiated between the two. But for now, the Turnbull-led liberal Party can draw comfort from the upswing in the stock market following the leadership change.
For the AlP, after a horrid two-year run in the newspolls, things are suddenly looking up. Opposition leader Bill Shorten’s public rating seems to be improving, as he adorns a grin to the ears at the sudden turn of events. AlP smells blood, as Mr Shorten wasted no time in targeting Mr Turnbull over his botched-up stand on the emission trading scheme and labelled the new Prime Minister as an “out of touch arrogant leader”.
So, as Australia braves the winds of change planting the fourth Prime Minister in two and a half years, one wonders if something more fundamental is flawed with Australian politics. It is intriguing to see popularly elected leaders being shunted out through internal party machinations, because the newspolls say they aren’t popular anymore.
When Mr Rudd fared badly in the newspolls, he was replaced by Ms Gillard. later, in the run up to the 2013 election, when Ms Gillard was seen as detrimental to the party’s chances, Mr Rudd returned the favour, with the help of the same caucus which had once overthrown him brusquely.
Now, with Mr Abbott having been booted out based on newspolls ratings, will his successor, Mr Turnbull, also face a similar fate if he faltersIJ When does this revolving door practice — the new normal for Australian politics — ceaseIJ Does it not betray the peoples’ mandateIJ Haven’t popular mandates and intra-party politicking become an oxymoron in the Australian political cultureIJ
Some contend that it is about policies and not individuals, but individual leadership undeniably shapes electoral outcomes and people do vote for leaders. Not long ago, the irked voters had shown their disproval of this revolving door practice by inflicting a humiliating defeat on the AlP in 2013.
Only time will tell if Mr Turnbull, known as the Renaissance Man for 54 of his colleagues, will face a similar fate 11 months from now. But if history is any indication, than it is likely to repeat itself.
(The writer is a visiting fellow at the TC Beirne School of law, University of Queensland, Australia)