Electoral fraud charges plague Afghan election
Afghanistan's fraught presidential election campaign is fast escalating into a full-blown crisis that not only threatens the fragile gains made by that country in this past decade but also poses a major security threat to the region. Allegations of large-scale electoral fraud, that have flying thick and fast since the June 14 run-off between Messrs Abdullah Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani, threaten to undermine the legitimacy of the mandate that will bring the next Government to power. The situation came to a head early this week when the Independent Election Commission announced Mr Ghani was leading with 56.4 per cent of the votes. In defiance, Mr Abdullah declared victory the next day while some of the staunchest supporters, including the Governor of Balkh Province announced that they only recognise an Abdullah-led Government. This has fuelled fears that Afghanistan may even see a political split. But even if that is not the case, a weak Government in Kabul will not be able to lead Afghanistan on the path of democracy and development in the long term. This will be, in no small measure, due to the fact that in the short term, it will have enormous trouble garnering the much-needed support of the international community. For one, Afghanistan’s security agreement with America still hangs in the balance. Both candidates favour the agreement but US Secretary of State John Kerry, who visited Kabul on Friday, has made clear that America will distance itself from a discredited Afghan regime.
For now, the matter is being moved to the Electoral Complaints Commission which will review the ballots. But here too the problem of credibility continues to the plague the electoral process with Mr Abdullah demanding the removal of the ECC chief to ensure a fair investigation. As the crisis continues to deepen, it is important to keep in mind that few doubt the fact that there has been widespread electoral fraud. Even the IEC acknowledges as much, which is why it has not called the election in anyone's favour yet. The total voter turnout for the run-off at 8.1 million is suspiciously higher than in the first round where about six million people exercised their franchise, even though there was lesser canvassing for the second round. Mr Abdullah, who was the leading candidate after the first round, has alleged that the additional two million votes have been stuffed in favour of his opponent. Mr Ghani has dismissed these charges.
As such, a certain amount of electoral fraud is not new for Afghan elections. The 2009 presidential poll, which pitted Mr Abdullah against incumbent Hamid Karzai, had the same problem and led to suspicions that it had been rigged by external forces. After an audit, thousands of fraudulent votes, cast mostly in Mr Karzai's favour, were cancelled which took the sheen of the President's eventual victory. Also, a crisis was averted at that time because Mr Abdullah who had earlier served a Mr Karzai's Foreign Minister backed down; it is unlikely that he will do so now. From India's point of view, there are no preferences for either candidate. However, both men will do well to keep in mind India's take on the matter: “That while winning an election requires simple arithmetic majority, running a country requires inclusiveness and an ability to carry everyone along.”