With dates in, all eyes on Uttar Pradesh, rest
With the Election Commission of India announcing the dates for the Assembly elections to be held in five States — Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa — starting February 4 and going up right up to March 8, political parties will now get into real election mode. The most important contest will of course be in Uttar Pradesh, where a strong three-cornered battle between the ruling Samajwadi Party (SP), the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is on the cards. But one never knows; it can also be a four-way fight if two SP factions are pitted against each other. At present, the picture is gloomy for the SP as the long-standing family feud between the old guard and the new guard refuses to die. On the one hand, SP chief Mulayam Singh Yadav and his brother Shivpal Yadav are seeking to keep control of the reins of the party. On the other, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav (with his mentor Ram Gopal Yadav’s help) has emerged as a winner with larger support from party members and MlAs.
Split or no split, for the SP, even if it is the Mulayam Singh Yadav faction or the Akhilesh Yadav faction, it is a battle of supremacy and survival within the party itself as it is in the Assembly. Meanwhile, as the family drama unfolds, the BJP, the Congress and the BSP are on the lookout to score some brownie points from the split. For the BJP, the election would be the real test as it will be for the first time it will go to polls after demonetisation. Moreover, the party is looking to gain power in the State after nearly 15 years. There had been a constant decline in its vote share in the past three Assembly elections. By counting on the Modi charisma, which led the party to a massive victory in the 2014 lok Sabha poll, the BJP hopes to win one of the most populous and crucial States. For the BSP, the election will be crucial after the humiliating defeat it suffered in 2014, where it could not secure a single seat. The party will be looking forward to redeem its prestige in this Assembly election. As for the Congress, it will be a miracle if the grand old party on its own gets a respectable number.
In Punjab, the ruling BJP-Shiromani Akali Dal combine, which has been in power for two successive terms, faces a tough battle with a third party, the Aam Aadmi Party, alongside its traditional rival, the Congress, in the fray. In the tiny State of Goa, there is a triangular contest between the ruling BJP, the Congress and the new entrant — the AAP. For the BJP, it will be crucial to retain the State, because ever since Manohar Parrikar’s exit as Chief Minister to assume charge as Defence Minister, all eyes have been on the new leadership. In the north-eastern State of Manipur, the entry of Irom Sharmila, who will take on Manipur Chief Minister Okram Ibobi Singh, will be an interesting factor. As for the hilly State of Uttarakhand, which witnessed political instability last year, both the BJP and the Congress are confident of staking claim. Whatever the election results are, for the two national parties — the BJP and the Congress — who are pitted against regional parties, these elections could set the tone for the 2019 lok Sabha election. This will be one interesting spectacle that we can all look forward to seeing as the new year unfolds.