India-Russia ties will not weaken anytime soon
If one cuts through the chatter that the 16 agreements which have been signed between India and Russia during Prime Minister Narendra Modi's recently concluded two-day trip to Moscow, has generated, the core remains that of a renewed partnership between two traditional friends now seeking to expand their influence in areas that may supposedly be discomforting to the other. India has, for instance, been building stronger military relations with the United States, a country which has dislodged Russia as the larger supplier to India of defence equipment. This cannot be good news for the Russians. Similarly, Moscow, under President Vladimir Putin's leadership, has lifted its unofficial embargo against Pakistan on military goods. It is slated to supply a slew of defence equipment to Islamabad, which it had not for decades keeping Indian sensibilities in mind. Strategic experts here have considered Russia's departure from the past as an indication of its coming closer to Pakistan. This, along with the deep defence ties that Islamabad has been building with China, has been an additional cause of concern to the Indian establishment. But it would be alarmist to take an extreme position and question Russia's long-term commitment to India or assert China's desire to floor India. For one, India is a mature nation that knows how to deal with the changing geo-politics of the world. It's no longer a bipolar world it once was with two superpowers — the former Soviet Union and the US — ranged against each other and other countries compelled to throw their lot with either of them. Today, with the US and Russia themselves engaged deeply with each other at various levels, it makes no sense for India to fashion responses according to old norms. Both Russia and the US will understand and appreciate that it is in India's interests to deal widely with both in various spheres of activity, whether military or diplomatic or cultural. It's no longer an ‘either/or' situation. Focusing on this fresh narrative, it must be borne in mind that Moscow's new outreach to Pakistan did not stop it from inking a deal with India for the joint manufacture of 226 military helicopters. This is a major boost to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's ambitious Make in India programme. And, nor did the thaw in Russia-Pakistan defence relations prevent Moscow from agreeing to construct as many as 12 nuclear power plants with the involvement of Indian players in this country. Finally, Moscow’s strong support to India in the latter's bid for a permanent membership of the United Nations Security Council remains undiluted, and it is unlikely that it will lend similar support to Pakistan in case the latter decides to press its case.
That said, it would be premature to dream of a Russia-India-China trilateral for these countries to leverage their individual strengths in a joint effort to be more forcefully heard across the globe. There is no need for India to be part of any ‘grouping', whether it involves Russia, China or the US. There are enough multilateral platforms on which these and other nations can meaningfully engage — and they have been doing so. India must continue to strengthen its outreach, from Russia to the US to Europe to the Arab world to West Asia to Africa to Iran and, of course, the rest of Asia.