After the lok Sabha bypolls and Rajya Sabha biennial elections, political parties are bracing for yet another ‘battle royale’ next month in the form of biennial elections to 13 seats of UP legislative Council.
In the Council polls, the tenacity of the fledgling Samajwadi Party-Bahujan Samaj Party alliance will be on test again.
The Bharatiya Janata Party is desperate to break this alliance before the 2019 lok Sabha polls. Contrary to the Rajya Sabha polls, the Council elections may not witness a contest as the BJP has many surplus votes.
As happened in the Rajya Sabha polls, out of the total 13 seats, the BJP can win 11 on its strength in the Assembly. The SP can win one seat and for the 13th seat, the joint SP-BSP and Congress candidate can be elected unopposed provided the BJP decides against fielding the 12th candidate.
like in the Rajya Sabha polls, the ruling BJP will be the major gainer as the party can grab at least 11 of the total 13 seats.
The possibilities of the BJP fielding a 12th candidate are high as the elections to legislative Council are held through secret ballot.
The MlAs are not obliged to show their ballot to the polling agent of their parties and they are free to cross-vote without any threat of disqualification from membership of the Assembly.
As per the poll arithmetic, with 46 MlAs (after defection of Nitin Agarwal), SP can easily win one seat and have 17 spare votes and so the joint opposition can win the second seat. In the Council poll, a candidate will require around 29 first preference votes to get elected.
As witnessed in the Rajya Sabha polls, the SP will have 17 spare votes after winning one seat and the opposition again could unite for the 13th seat. On the other hand, the BJP, after allotting first preference votes for 11 candidates, would be left with only five spare votes for the 12th candidate and hence may not field a 12th candidate.
After the elections, the strength of the Samajwadi Party in the Council would plummet. In the 100-member Council, SP has 61 MlCs. Of the 13 retiring MlCs, eight are from SP, including party president Akhilesh Yadav, party state president Naresh Uttam and spokesperson Rajendra Chaudhary. One of its former MlC, Ambika Chaudhary, who joined the BSP before 2017 polls, quit the Council in December 2017. The tally of the SP will come down to 55 after winning one seat.
The BSP tally in the Council will dip from nine to seven as its two members, legislative Council leader Sunil Chittor and Vijay Pratap, are retiring. BSP’s Jaiveer Singh defected to the BJP and resigned from the Council in September last year to pave the way for BJP’s Mohsin Raza.
Ajit Singh’s Rashtriya lok Dal will not have any representation in the Council with its lone MlC, Chaudhary Mushtaq, retiring. Two UP ministers, Mahendra Kumar Singh and Mohsin Raza’s term would also end on May 5. They could be renominated by the BJP.
legislative Council members retiring on May 5 are Akhilesh Yadav, Umar Ali Khan, Naresh Chandra Uttam, Madhu Gupta, Rajendra Chaudhary, Ramsakal Gujjar, D Vijay Yadav (all SP), UP ministers Mahendra Kumar Singh and Mohsin Raza (both BJP), Sunil Kumar Chittor and Dr Vijay Pratap (both BSP) and Chaudhary Mustaq (RlD).