Faced with anti-incumbency and the discontent of middle class urban voters, the Congress leadership has set its sights on 40 Assembly seats in the national Capital where Dalits and Muslims constitute 30 per cent of the total votes. Congress strategists are working out to attract these voters into their fold that would prove to be a very potent combination at the hustings.
Congress had won in these seats in 2008 too as Dalits and Muslims voted for its candidates. It lost only in such constituencies where Muslim votes were divided. The arithmetic this time may work in the favour of the ruling party as its poll managers are burning midnight oil to wean away this formidable combination into its fold.
Congress planners are upbeat over this prospect and they hope to blunt the anti-incumbency factor against the Sheila Dikshit Government by winning over this segment. An analysis of the result of the 42 seats that Congress had won in 2008 Delhi Assembly elections, indicates that if the same combination gels together, the outcome could be a record fourth time for Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit.
Congress’ Balram Tanwar had won Chhatarpur Assembly seat in 2008 by riding on the support of 15.62 per cent of Dalit votes and 19.62 per cent of Muslim votes. Malviya Nagar seat was won by Dr Kiran Kalia as she got the support from 10 per cent Dalit votes and 19.89 per cent of Muslim votes. Anil Bhardwaj of Congress had retained the Tri Nagar Assembly seat as he rode on the combination of 15.38 per cent votes of Dalits and 20.38 per cent of Muslim votes. Similarly Mangat Ram Singhal too had retained the Adarsh Nagar seat by banking on the 15.80 per cent votes of Scheduled Caste and 20.80 percent Muslims. BJP’s Sri Krishna Tyagi managed to win Burari seat despite Dalits’s 16.38 per cent votes and 21.38 per cent votes of the Muslims. Congress’s SS Bittoo had retained the Timarpur seat as he romped home by getting the support of the 18.47 per cent Dalits and 21.47 per cent Muslim voters.
Congress heavyweight Mukesh Sharma had retained Uttam Nagar seat for the record fourth time in 2008 and 7.44 per cent Dalit voters and 22.44 per cent Muslim voters stood by his side. Congress’ Barkha Singh had won RK Puram seat by defeating her nearest BJP rival and 22.50 Muslim voters and 14.50 per cent of Dalits tilted the scales in her favour. Subhash Chopra, the former State President had won hands down from Kalkaji in 2008 as a majority of 35 per cent votes of Dalits and Muslims were pitched for him. Tarwinder Singh Marwah of Congress had won Jangpura seat by banking upon the formidable combination of 38 per cent of Dalit and Muslim voters.
However, BJP’s Mohan Singh Bisht stemmed this trend in Karwal Nagar by negating the impact of 23.23 per cent Muslim votes and 8.32 per cent Dalits. BJP strategists are studying the success story of Bisht who retained the seat in 2008 and they hope to repeat the same feat where the combined votes of Dalits and Muslim can tilt the scales in favour of the Congress, party insiders said. BJP’s Kulwant Rana had won Mundka seat despite the presence of 29.41 per cent Muslim and Dalit votes. The most notable win for the BJP was in Kirari seat where its candidate Anil Jha had won despite a very formidable 51 per cent of Muslim and Dalit votes. It was said that Jha won on the basis of the support of the Poorvanchalis and managed to dent the lethal combination that Congress hopes to wean away this time too.
Rajouri Garden is another seat where Congress has been sitting pretty ever since Ajay Maken won it for the first time in 1993. Currently the spokesperson of the All India Congress Committee (AICC) had won it thrice. After the delimitation was enforced in 2008, Congress candidate Dayanand Chandila won it by riding on the support of 35 per cent votes of Dalits and Muslims. Model Town, Vikaspuri seats were won by the Congress as its candidates got a major vote share of 41 per cent Dalits and Muslims in Model Town and 38 per cent of this combination in Vikaspuri. BJP’s Sahab Singh Chauhan had won Ghonda seat and he too won despite more than 38 per cent of Muslim and Dalits votes. While Congress had won Badli, Nagloi, Rajender Nagar. Wazirpur, Badarpur, Rohtas Nagar, Patel Nagar, Shahdara, Gandhi Nagar, Sadar, Narela, Bawana, Chandni Chowk, Ambedkar Kondly, Madipur, Mangolpuri, Deoli, Seemapuri, Mustafabad, Sultanpur Majra, Ballimaran and Seelampur seats by getting the support of more than 30 per cent of the Dalit-Muslim combine.
Analysis of the seats won by the BJP during the 2008 Assembly polls indicates that its candidates won in those seats where Muslims had virtually no say. And also their percentage in these Assembly segments was very dismal. BJP had won Rohini, Hari Nagar, Shakur Basti, Greater Kailash, Rithala, Tilak Nagar, Shalimar Bagh, Moti Nagar and Palam. Of these, in Rohini, Hari Nagar, Shakur Basti, GK, Rithala, Shalimar Bagh, the Muslim population is less than one per cent. Tilak Nagar and Moti Nagar constituencies have only two per cent Muslim while Palam has three per cent Muslim population. Similarly, the SC population in these constituencies is less than 10 per cent. For instance, Rohini has only 5.85 per cent SC voters; Hari Nagar 7.89 per cent; Shakur Basti 9.15 per cent; GK 9.66 per cent; Rithala 10.06 per cent; Tilak Nagar 8.32 per cent; Shalimar Bagh 10.83 per cent; Moti Nagar 10.97 per cent and Palam
10.19 per cent.
Similarly, there are 13 Assembly seats where Muslim and SC population is between 15 per cent and 19 per cent in the national Capital. During the delimitation, the Congress leadership had done its homework and added resettlement and Muslim pockets in urban areas to dent BJP prospects. This had been reflected during Assembly polls of 2008.