91 nations, most of them developed Western economies, are now combatting the ‘baby bust' syndrome
Nobody had really expected to live through the “baby bust” syndrome but if a recent survey is to be believed then it seems 91 nations, most of them developed, are not producing enough children to sustain their current population levels or even replace them. This, when the global population shows a rising trend supported by the Afro-Asian world and developing countries. In fact, India seems to have one of the best potentials for reaping a demographic dividend. In short, almost half the world is underpopulated and resultant growth is severely skewed with disastrous socio-economic and political consequences. Both trends are explainable. Developing economies have just about begun clambering out of the poverty trough and come into some prosperity but have still not rid themselves of the mindset to increase the family earning potential with more hands in the productive workforce. For developed economies, higher education and empowerment have meant that more women have joined the productive workforce as co-workers, delaying their child-bearing choices. However, the study while pinpointing the dips and spurts doesn’t quite look at the larger issue of urban infertility that’s unsparing in its proportions everywhere and poses a human resource challenge later on. The fertility rate of Indians, which has a population advantage at the moment, has plummeted by over 50 per cent between 1975 and today, according to the World Population Prospects of 2017. Factors range from pesticides, climate change, hormonal imbalances, stress, lifestyle and so on but worryingly there are no signs of recovery.
Of course, developed Western economies have been combatting a human resource crunch with an immigrant inflow into the workforce. But now that the immigrants have also risen in prosperity and with some of their home economies emerging and racing the bull run, they may not be a long-term investment. Besides, if they do want to adopt the country they work in, then their logical assertion has to be respected, be it in terms of social and political co-option or rehabilitation. Of course, there are many votaries of the fourth industrial revolution claiming that digital and AI-driven processes can fill in the productivity levels of an ageing populace but can they replace the innovation of the human brain? So globally, there is an urgent need to revise public health policy and protocols to accord primacy to strategies at local/national and international level to prevent infertility and protect human fertility. There should be adequate awareness about reproductive health in public school curriculum. Affordable living indices should be prioritised for the aspirational young to choose a settled family life early on. Simultaneously fertility treatment and assisted protocols must break the barrier of elitism and become a matter of affordable and safe public convenience.