The Jat reservation stir 2016, which left deep scars in the minds of people and resulted in bitterly divided Haryana on caste lines, is likely to play a key part in shaping the public opinion in deciding the political outcome in 2019.
With general election and assembly polls in Haryana scheduled to be held in 2019, the demand of reservation to the dominant Jat community in the state which is continuing unabated, may emerge as the chief talking point in polls.
Even though the electoral outcomes are notoriously difficult to predict, the political analysts feel, with Jat community drifting away from the ruling BJP over the issue of their unfulfilled demands, the 2019 polls would not be a cakewalk for the BJP and a slight advantage for the opposition.
The strategy of consolidating the non-Jat votes, just like 2014, is also unlikely to favor the ruling BJP in the wake of violence unleashed in the state during Jat stir 2016, dera violence 2017 and Baba Rampal episode, the political observers feel.
The Jats, which constitute nearly 29 percent of Haryana’s population, had provided the BJP the necessary traction to register its maiden victory in October 2014 assembly polls as well winning 7 out of 10 lok Sabha seats earlier that year.
But with resentment brewing among the influential Jat community over their unfulfilled demands of reservation in educational institutions and government jobs, release of youths arrested during quota stir 2016 and withdrawal of cases registered against them, the BJP Government with a non-Jat leader as its head, may find it difficult to repeat its 2014 performance, at least in Haryana.
“At present, the trend seems to be going against the ruling BJP with resentment among both Jats and non-Jat voters over various issues. Even the result of polarization of votes on the basis of caste is not going to help any particular party this time,” said Kulwant Singh Nehra, Assistant Professor, RBI chair at Chandigarh-based Centre for Research in Rural and Industrial Development (CRRID) while talking to The Pioneer.
He said, “The Jats have significant presence in Rohtak, Hisar, Sonepat, Sirsa, Bhiwani, Jind and Jhajjar and the BJP is likely to face tough situation over the issue of unfulfilled demands of the Jat community.”
“The BJP’s bold decision of having a non-Jat Chief Minister Manohar lal continues to upset the dominant Jat caste in the state. Also, after Jat stir and several rounds of meetings between the government and the community, the issues still remain unsettled. The Jat Ministers, Capt Abhimanyu and OP Dhankar, and BJP state president Subhash Barala do not have a mass base in Jat belt, like former Chief Ministers’ Congress’ Bhupinder Singh Hooda and INlD’s chief OP Chautala,” he said.
“While Congress and INlD are eyeing the disgruntled Jat vote bank, the BJP is looking to unite non-Jat vote bank for 2019. But, the other castes including Dalits, Brahmins, Banias, Ahirs, Gujjars and Yadavs remain divided as of now, and factors like agriculture, GST implementation, electricity bills among others is likely to alter the outcome and electoral trend this time,” Assistant Professor Nehra said.
He added, “In such scenario, even a strong polarization of vote bank on caste basis is unlikely to favor a particular party.”
Haryana will be witnessing a rectangular political battle with BJP, Congress and INlD already kicking off election campaigns and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) entering the fray in Arvind Kejriwal’s home state.
The political observers feel that even if the BJP focuses on cobbling together non-Jat vote bank to win, it still cannot ignore the political and social might of the Jat community in the state.
“2019 elections will be no cakewalk for any party in Haryana. Politics of identity based on caste will play a key role in elections,” said Jitender Prasad, retired Professor, Department of Sociology, Maharashi Dayanand University, Rohtak.
He said, “As far as Jat vote bank is concerned, there is now trust deficit with BJP, following the Jat agitation 2016 and several rounds of failed talks over the demands of the community. The BJP is likely to focus on cobbling together other castes including Dalits (19 percent population), Brahmins, Ahir, Gujjars among others but this will help the party only in some segments. The Chief Minister Manohar lal does have a clout in his own Punjabi community in the state.”
Jitender Prasad said, “In 2014 general elections and assembly polls, factors like Modi wave, strong anti-incumbency against Congress, shifting loyalists of Congress’ bigwigs to BJP had made the BJP’s win comfortable. In 2014 assembly polls, the BJP candidate Manish Grover had even won in Bhupinder Singh Hooda’s bastion, Rohtak.”
But, the situation is different, this time. In 2019, the mishandling of sensitive issues of Jat agitation, Sirsa dera violence and Baba Rampal issue by ruling BJP will certainly swing key electorate votes, he said.
The BJP is seemed to be struggling to retain its grip on both Jat and non-Jat vote bank while the divided Congress unit in the state seems to have not gained much in the past four years. The INlD, on the other hand, is likely to gain from Jat vote bank, he added.
A non-Jat leader Manohar lal, who is a first time MlA, is seen as an inexperienced administrator in Haryana, where the Jat community has always called the shots. The Jat leaders have felt uneasy under the leadership of a Punjab CM and the revolt of Jat community against the BJP was anticipated, according to the political observers.
During the violent Jat quota agitation in 2016 which left a dreadful legacy of death and destruction in Haryana, the BJP led Haryana Government could do very “little” except “lip service”.
The agitation had left 31 people dead, wounded more than 200, destroyed property worth hundreds of crores of rupees bringing Haryana and adjoining areas to a halt for more than 10 days.
With the Jat community gearing up for a fresh agitation over their unfulfilled demands ahead of 2019 polls, the politicization of reservation issue and political blame game over 2016 violent agitation is expected to be a core issue to impact voters’ mind.
Also, the reservation issue does not affect the Jat community only but also, the OBCs, who do not want reservation for the Jat community as it will directly affect their share of quota.
The OBC brigade under BJP’s Kurukshetra MP Raj Kumar Saini is creating an anti-BJP front ahead of 2019 polls and claims to have support of other communities as well.
“The OBC population is not happy with the present BJP Government following the mishandling of violent Jat agitation 2016 in the state. Ahirs, Yadavs, Gujjars among others are now looking for a change in state leadership,” said OBC brigade, Haryana chief Rampal Rathi while talking to The Pioneer.
Rathi said that a party will be floated under MP Raj Kumar Saini to provide an alternative to the OBCs and other castes, which are suffering under BJP’s regime. The BJP has surrendered to Jat blackmail in Haryana and we are not ready to accept this leadership anymore, he added.
On the other hand, Yashpal Malik, the president of All-India Jat Aarakshan Sangharsh Samiti (AIJASS), which is spearheading the Jat agitation in Haryana has threatened the BJP Government of launching a fresh agitation over the community’s demands.
Malik said, “The community do not trust the BJP anymore and have decided to boycott the events of Chief Minister, his cabinet and BJP MlAs from August 15 onwards.”
The Jats will also hold campaigning and meetings against the BJP in the poll-bound states of Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, he said.
The political blame game over the violent Jat agitation 2016 in the state has also intensified after the CBI filed a chargesheet before a Panchkula court into the attack at Cabinet Minister Capt. Abhimanyu’s Rohtak residence during the stir, indicating at a political conspiracy behind violence and arson to topple the BJP led Haryana Government.
Commenting on politicization of Jat reservation issue and its possible impact on 2019 polls, Nirupama Gupta, Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Kurukshetra University said, “Given the current situation, even the Jat vote bank seems divided and it is too early to predict whether the BJP and other political parties would benefit from this.”
“Things still seem favorable for the BJP with expected polarization of vote bank in the state,” she added.