Voters of Himachal Pradesh voted for a change as the ballot boxes were opened on Thursday with the Congress romping home comfortably and demolishing the Bharatiya Janata Party’s hope of returning to power once again in the hill state.
Dev Bhoomi, as Himachal is called, did not spring any surprises as it has been throwing incumbent governments out of power for the last almost four decades and it continued with this tradition by giving Congress 40 seats as compared to BJP’s 25. The Independents won 3 in the 68-member Assembly. Apart from other factors, what helped Congress was the complete demolition of the Aam Aadmi Party which failed to eat into the Congress vote bank or get the anti-incumbency votes, failing to open its account and doing badly all over the state.
Chief Minister Jairam Thakur conceded the party’s defeat later in the afternoon and submitted his resignation to the Governor but only after a see-saw battle that took a decisive turn towards the Congress. State President of the victorious Congress, Pratibha Singh, surrounded by party workers, supporters, and a few MLAs, thanked the voters of the state for trusting the people. She and her son Vikramaditya Singh, who won from Shimla Rural for the second time in a row, remembered Virbhadra Singh, the towering figure of state politics who died last year.
Many political analysts in the state believe that his death triggered a sympathy factor for his widow, son, and the party resulting in the victory despite Prime Minister Narendra Modi campaigning vigorously in the state and BJP President JP Nadda having his political roots here. In October last year, after the death of the six-time chief minister Virbhadra Singh, bye-elections for 4 seats (3 Assembly and 1 Lok Sabha) were held and Congress won all, indicating which way the political wind was blowing.
Dissension in the BJP was evident from the beginning as a couple of Independents who won were denied party tickets. On the other hand, Congress gave tickets to all its sitting MLAs—19 and there was no scope for dissension there. In the campaigning too, it was a pleasant surprise to see Congress united like never before and fighting with a single-minded purpose of victory.
Apart from anti-incumbency, the lackluster performance of the Jairam Thakur government in the last five years was a big drawback of the party. He was made chief minister as the then chief ministerial candidate Prem Kumar Dhumal lost his seat in the 2017 polls. Since then, Dhumal has been cooling his heels in Hamirpur and despite rebellious supporters, he was not allowed to contest the polls this time round on the excuse of having completed 75 years of age. Though his son and Union Minister Anurag Singh Thakur went all out in the campaign, Dhumal’s marginalization had an impact on some of his supporters who either rebelled or simply looked the other way round. Though Thakur had a clean image, he lacked administrative acumen and found it hard to fill in the shoes of Dhumal who had built a support base for himself in all parts of the state.
Moreover, Himachal is a state where government servants have the ability to swing the mood of voters and their mood too swings from one election to the other. This time, the Congress's promise of bringing back the old pension scheme helped them rally around the party and they played a significant role in the victory. Though chief minister Thakur to his credit tried to woo this section desperately in the last six months of his tenure, it was seen merely as a “cosmetic” instead of substantial outreach.
In the apple belt of the state too, there was resentment against the government simply because the import duty of foreign-produced and imported apples was not increased and the hope of the orchardists to make decent profits was dashed. In fact, the apple growers perhaps thought that despite having a double-engine government (both Centre and state), Thakur could not get one simple concession for them. Producing Apple is a huge economy in the state and there are direct and indirect beneficiary families and no government can afford to ignore their wishes. No wonder, Congress did exceedingly well in the apple belt of the state winning 7 of the 8 seats.
With a decisive victory, Congress might not fear poaching now but there could be differences on the name of the new chief minister in the meeting of the legislative party, Congress is likely to convene a meeting of its legislative party either in Chandigarh or Shimla in a day or two. Chhattisgarh chief minister Bhupesh Baghel who played a significant role in the Himachal campaign and who, of late, has emerged as a troubleshooter for the party, has already reached out to the victorious MLAs for a consensus on a name. It is understood that the name of the new chief minister would be decided as early as possible to keep any potential trouble away after a discussion between the high command and the newly elected MLAs.
As Congress General Secretary Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, campaigned, conducted road shows and earlier chose candidates for the election, she is likely to play an important role in the decision-making process. Two names for the top political post are significant at this juncture—PCC President, Mandi MP, and widow of former CM Virbhadra Singh and Leader of Opposition and former journalist and Virbhadra loyalist Mukesh Agnihotri. Former state president Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu too has thrown his hat in the ring, bringing a sense of urgency to the top echelons of the Congress to take a quick decision.