Bharatiya Janata Party will be devoid of an emotive issue of “Parivarvaad’ in 2024 parliamentary polls as Gandhi family, kept itself away from the election process of AICC president to pave the way for the elevation of Malika Arjun Kharge for the top slot in organization and an identical operation has been given a practical shape in Himachal following the unanimous election of a son of a driver, Sukhvinder Singh ‘Sukhu’ as new chief minister which preceded the rejection of the claim of Pratibha Singh wife of the late six-term chief minister, Virbhadra Singh.
Notwithstanding the fact that Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka were latently guiding the AICC president and observers but Congress has been able to create a public perception that Sukhu has been given a chance to head the government in Himachal who has been selling newspapers and milk to support his higher education in Shimla. State Congress leaders may continuously harp upon this issue of grassroot worker and noble background of chief minister thereby focussing on next Lok Sabha elections to win four seats that had gone into BJP’s kitty in 2019.
Due to Modi wave, BJP had established the lead in all 68 assembly segments in Himachal and polled 50 percent of the total votes. But now its tally has come down to 25 from 44 segments in assembly polls and vote percentage slumped from 50% (Lok Sabha) to 43% in merely 3 years, a decline of 7 percent. Similarly, when compared with 2017 assembly polls, BJP won with 48.79 percent but now it is down to 43%, a loss of 7.11%. BJP leaders are putting up a brave face saying that there is a difference of .9% as compared to Congress but real loss is bigger (7.11percent) which has been responsible for its humiliating defeat in the state.
Experts believe that due to lack of experience of Sukhu in administration as he never got an opportunity to be a minister in the past, it will be an uphill task to come up to the expectations of people who have been promised ten guarantees which may upset the fragile economy of the state. But the presence of Mukesh Agnihotri as deputy CM may fill this gap as he remained cabinet minister in Virbhadra government and both have promised to work in tandem. Second, several odd factors were heavily loaded against previous Jai Ram government which included complete lack of control of chief minister over bureaucracy, lackluster performance of state government, anti-incumbency, skyrocketing prices of essential commodities, youths’ contempt owing to paucity of jobs, and above all employees, anger over non acceptance of their demand of restoration of Old Pension Scheme (OPS) which lead to the unceremonious downfall of the government.
In this complex scenario, Sukhu government will have to focus on delivery and implementation of poll promises to send a good signal to the people. Third, the bureaucracy did not cooperate with previous BJP government and Ex CM, Jai Ram Thakur had unceremoniously removed two former chief secretaries viz Anil Khachi and Ram Subhag Singh which did not go well with entire numeracy hence chief minister will be under compulsion to win the confidence of bureaucrats who play a big role in the success or failure of any government. Fourth, a whooping debt liability of Rs 74,000 crore may create a big hurdle in the fulfilment of election promises which involve a lot of funds and state is currently in the category of a pauper because it heavily depends upon the center. Fifth, an appreciable number of MLAs owing their allegiance to late Virbhadra may be required to tackle with maturity and dignity otherwise it may ferment trouble in future. Jai Ram Thakur paid heavily for ignoring MLAs who were loyalists of former CM, Prof Prem Kumar Dhumal hence he kept aloof from the aggressive campaigning. Sixth, BJP has got an effective strength of 25 MLAs who will always try to put the government on the mat hence the chief minister will have to quickly learn to tackle such situations inside the state assembly though he is a four-time legislator and well acquainted with such tricks of the opposition and may easily handle it. Seventh, ministry expansion is also a ticklish problem though the onus will be primarily on high command. The regional balance, caste equations and admixture of seniority as well as young blood may be the main criteria while inducting the new ministers.
Sukhu has risen from a grassroots worker to the state party president and then to the highest post in the state as CM. Sukhu’s arduous journey includes selling newspapers and milk to support his higher studies which might have tilted the pendulum in his favor besides the connection with Gandhi family.
Analysts argue that the high command has tried to give a message to BJP that the new chief minister is having the modest background of being the son of a bus driver and does not have even an iota of ‘Parivarvaad”. Second, BJP has been deprived of its potential weapon of hitting out against Gandhi family vis -a -vis election of a Dalit as AICC president in Delhi which will get strengthened after the denial of post to royal family claimant in Himachal Pradesh. Experts say that factors are different in the denial of top slot to Pratibha Singh which primarily include scarce of contesting Mandi by poll. Congress lost nine out of ten assembly segments in Ex CM’s home district Mandi and Pratibha is a sitting Lok Sabha MP and her election as CM could have made it mandatory to resign thereby warranting by poll and BJP could have easily staged come back to undermine current jubilation and celebrations of ouster of its government?
Experts say that Congress emerged victorious in 40 seats hence it was beyond the striking range of BJP to make any attempt to engineer defections to block Congress from forming the government but saffron party is hurt to the core hence any available opportunity may be exploited to unsettle the present government.
(The writer is a political analyst and senior journalist based in Shimla)