The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) may have an advantage in the Haryana Assembly polls but the ride to power may not be without hurdles.
The party is facing a tough battle in Jat-dominated central Haryana, Muslim-dominated southern part of the States and areas adjoining Delhi. Understanding the political calculation of South Haryana, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and senior Congress leader Rahul Gandhi recently addressed rallies to woo the voters in their favour. Modi raised national issue while Rahul spoke on local issues like unemployment, farmers’ distress among others.
South Haryana is an underdeveloped region of and has dearth of water, road, transport and protracted demand of University and educational institutes. Successive Haryana governments have discriminated in development of South Haryana. ‘Neglect’ of Rewari-Mahendergarh-Gurgaon belt in terms of development works, government jobs, public transport especially roads and supply of water and power are demands from a long time period.While caste still remains the single biggest factor, other major factors are likely to influence the elections to the 90-seat Haryana assembly, which goes to the polls on Oct 21.
Of the 14 seats in south Haryana, comprising Gurugram, Mewat, Rewari and Mahendgarh districts, four of the eight sitting MLAs in the region, including Haryana PWD Minister Rao Narbir Singh, have been denied ticket. Some BJP leaders who have been denied a ticket are also creating roadblocks.
BJP has always been weak in Mewat as a sizable Muslim population here has either backed Congress or Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) in the past. BJP has little hope in Punahana seat in Nuh district where Nauksham Chaudhary is the candidate. It has pinned all its hopes on Zakir Hussain and Naseem Ahmed in Nuh and Ferozepur Jhirka seats, respectively.
Inderjit Singh, descendant of key 1857 rebellion leader Rao Tula Ram, enjoys huge support in the region, also known as the ‘Ahirwal belt’, dominated by the Yadavs. Seeking ticket for his daughter Arti Singh Rao from Rewari, Inderjit Singh has been sulking after the high command decided not to field the family and the relatives of the sitting MLAs and MPs. He is also upset over the party not accommodating enough number of his supporters. Amid reports of Inderjit Singh not being happy with the treatment meted out to him in the party, he is also said to have met former Haryana Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda a few days back. With the sitting MLAs being denied ticket, BJP has sent out a clear message of action against dissidents
Caste dynamics and priorities, an ever-present factor in Haryana politics have been reflected in the list of candidates for both the Congress and the BJP. Both the parties claim that they have the support of both Jats and Muslims.
The contest is largely two-way between BJP and Congress, as the INLD is now both divided and decimated. While the BJP is flush with resources and the morale is high, the Congress is unable to remove dissension from its state leadership. Unlike Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, where the BJP governments were laden with anti-incumbency and corruption charges, the Manohar Lal Khattar government remains unaffected by either. The Congress faces a very difficult task if it wishes to pose a credible challenge to the BJP.
For long, Jats, who constitute around 27 per cent of the population, have dominated the politics of the state. Hisar, Bhiwani, Mahendragarh, Rohtak, Jhajjar, Sonipat, Jind and Kaithal form the heart of Haryana’s Jat belt. In 2014, Congress was restricted to its family bastions of Rohtak, Sonepat and Jhajjar winning 15 seats. Chautala’s INLD registered better success by winning in pockets of Sirsa, Fatehabad, Bhiwani and Mewat belt. The chasm between Jats and non-Jats has become more pronounced since the Jat reservation agitation in February 2016.
While Congress and INLD are trying to focus on local governance issues, BJP is banking on Khattar’s clean record and PM Narendra Modi’s charisma. Employment is one of the major talking points. BJP has claimed that jobs and educational institutions were earlier cornered by two districts of Rohtak and Sonepat—family boroughs of Hoodas.
“Abki baar, sattar paar (this time, cross 70)” this is the confident call of BJP which stormed a largely-Jat dominated political landscape of Haryana in 2014. BJP’s major gains in 2014 came from this region spread from Chandigarh, Panchkula, Ambala, Yamunanagar, Kurukshetra, Karnal and Panipat. Behind the clear saffron wave was BJP’s unique social engineering experiment as give a voice to non-Jat Punjabi-speaking baniya community, which had long been politically insignificant. Once again, BJP is unabashedly banking on upper caste and baniya-khatri votes. This positioning has been strengthened by projecting Khattar as the unchallenged leader in the State. After some initial fumbling during the Jat quota agitation in 2016 and the Ram Rahim case, Khattar has managed to make a mark. BJP is playing the nationalism and development cards to good effect.
BJP’s assessment is that it is facing a challenge in the Rohtak-Sonipat region and may lose some seats to Congress. Union minister Narendra Singh Tomar and BJP general secretary in-charge of the state Anil Jain are camping in this area to improve the party’s prospects. BJP candidate Meena Narwal is on a weak wicket in Kharkhauda reserved seat in Sonepat. After losing in the Lok Sabha elections, Congress leader Bhupinder Singh Hooda is giving the party a tough fight in other seats of this region as well.
Anil Jain, BJP general secretary in-charge of Haryana said that nationalism is a big issue as 10.6 per cent of defence forces are constituted by people from the state. “Many of them have made the supreme sacrifice for the country in Kashmir,” he added.
The BJP has made national security, nullifying Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir and corruption-free government its poll agenda. Congress leaders, however, maintain that issues in the state polls are different. Former chief minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda dismisses the BJP challenge and has trashed the performance of the Khattar Government."Whatever they may claim, people have made up their mind to oust this non-performing government,” he added. The former Haryana chief minister has not only raised development issues of his constituency but of entire Haryana. Hooda claims that the BJP government has shown bias while releasing development funds for his area. He said that the BJP has stopped all development works in his constituency. From 2005 to 2014, when he was the chief minister, the constituency had witnessed unprecedented development. “The BJP government has been working as an event management company which is focusing only on performing events rather than understanding the basic issues. Corruption has increased and jobs have been sold. The BJP government has not completed even a single promise of its 154 promises, he added.
The challenge for BJP remains the 30 per cent Dalit population. Haryana has 14 reserved seats, of which BJP won nine, ally SAD got one, while Congress got four. Khattar government’s action against Ram Rahim Singh and other dera heads may cost BJP some Dalit votes, which have always been divided between Congress and BSP.
Sources in the BJP said the party brass does not want the cadre to get complacent and all efforts are afoot to fight with all its might. BJP chief Amit Shah and working president JP Nadda are holding rallies across the State. Focus has been laid in Jat dominate constituencies and South Haryana. PM Modi will hold four rallies, three of his rallies were organised at Ballabhgarh in Faridabad and Kurukshetra and Charkhi Dadri.
In Hisar, though ex-Congress state unit chief Ashok Tanwar quitting the party will help BJP, the road is tough due to Jannayak Janata Party (JJP) and Indian National Lok Dal (INLD). Kuldeep Bishnoi (Congress) is also a strong candidate against Tik-Tok star and BJP nominee Sonali Phogat. Caste politics has always a part of elections in Adampur which is dominated by the Jat community. Adampur has been a pocket borough of the Lal Clan and a Congress bastion. The politics of Adampur, particularly the Vidhan Sabha, is mostly dominated by the Bishnoi family. The Adampur Assembly electorate has brought in Bhajan Lal and his family members 13 times in a row since 1968.
Though BJP has fielded wrestler Yogeshwar Dutt in Baroda (Jind), sources said it is not an easy battle and the party will have to make a strong effort to pull through. The party is also facing some rebellion in Faridabad and Gurugram where those who were denied a ticket are covertly opposing the BJP candidates. BJP is faced with the same problem in Rewari and a few other neighbouring constituencies.
The political challenge for the International wrestler Babita Phogat that BJP has fielded in Dadri Vidhan Sabha constituency will be no less than what she faced in the sporting arena. Major contestants in this constituency are Satpal Sangwan of Jannayak Janata Party (JJP), Major Nirpender Sangwan of Congress, Babita Phogat of BJP and Somvir Sangwan of BJP rebel contesting as an independent candidate. Denied ticket by national political parties, including the BJP and the Congress, the unsuccessful applicants of these parties have jumped into the poll fight, making the contest for the Dadri Assembly seat multi-cornered. In 2014, Congress was restricted to its family bastions of Rohtak, Sonepat and Jhajjar winning 15 seats. Chautala’s INLD registered better success by winning in pockets of Sirsa, Fatehabad, Bhiwani and Mewat belt. The chasm between Jats and non-Jats has become more pronounced since the Jat reservation agitation in February 2016.
While Congress and INLD are trying to focus on local governance issues, BJP is banking on Khattar’s clean record and PM Narendra Modi’s charisma. Employment is one of the major talking points. BJP has claimed that jobs and educational institutions were earlier cornered by two districts of Rohtak and Sonepat—family boroughs of Hoodas.