Pakistan’s government has revised its GDP growth estimate for fiscal year 2025-26 down slightly to 3.65 percent, blaming a mild slowdown in industry and services, according to a media report Tuesday, October 20.
The revision came at the 118th meeting of the National Accounts Committee (NAC), held Monday at the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. In May 2026, the government had projected 3.70 percent growth, after earlier cutting its estimate from 4 percent. Dawn reported that the economy has now fallen short of its target.
The government said GDP grew modestly, along with per capita income in dollar terms, reflecting a slow recovery in overall output compared with the previous year.
The revised growth rates are 3.50 percent for agriculture, 3.34 percent for industry and 3.81 percent for services. The earlier estimates were 2.89 percent, 3.51 percent and 4.09 percent.
The NAC estimate is broadly in line with multilateral lenders’ forecasts. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected growth of 3.6 percent for FY26, while the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank have projected 3.7 percent. The State Bank of Pakistan expects growth to stay near 3.7 percent.
The economy grew to $450.4 billion in FY26 from $410.96 billion in FY25, driven mainly by services, followed by industry and livestock. Per capita income rose to $1,896 from $1,824, the lowest in the region, based on the 2023 census.
It was $1,551 in FY23, $1,766 in FY22 and $1,677 in FY21. Dawn said the figures point to a decline in living standards across almost all segments of society, with no real rise in personal incomes because of unprecedented inflation.
The committee approved updated quarterly growth rates for FY26: 3.89 percent in Q1, 4.31 percent in Q2 and 4.42 percent in Q3. Those compare with 3.92 percent, 4.05 percent and 3.99 percent presented at the NAC’s 117th meeting.
The fourth quarter grew 2 percent. Growth for FY25 was revised to 3.11 percent from 3.18 percent. The committee also approved incorporating revised import data into the national accounts estimates for FY21 to FY25.
Within industry, mining and quarrying improved to 1.52 percent from 0.38 percent, helped by gas (2.84 percent), crude oil (5.12 percent) and coal (2.73 percent). Large-scale manufacturing slowed to 5.01 percent from 6.11 percent.
Services growth slipped to 3.81 percent from 4.09 percent. Wholesale and retail trade grew 2.37 percent against 3.71 percent earlier, on lower manufacturing and imports. Transport and storage rose to 3.23 percent from 2.31 percent, and information and communication to 9.53 percent from 7.52 percent. Finance and insurance improved to 4.23 percent from 0.32 percent because of gains in insurance.
Growth slowed in public administration and social security (5.67 percent from 8.54 percent), education (4.17 percent from 5.23 percent) and human health and social work (5.52 percent from 6.85 percent), Dawn reported.