The country’s GDP is likely to grow at 1.3 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2020-21 and may see a contraction of around 7.3 per cent for the full financial year, according to an SBI research report ‘Ecowrap’.
The e-National Statistical Office (NSO) will release the GDP estimates for the March 2021 quarter and provisional annual estimates for the year 2020-21 on May 31.
“Based on our ‘nowcasting model’, the forecasted GDP growth for Q4 would be around 1.3 per cent (with downward bias) as against NSO (National Statistical Office) projection of a negative (-)1 per cent,” the research report said.
“We now expect GDP decline for the full year (FY 2020-21) to be around 7.3 per cent (compared to our earlier prediction of minus 7.4 per cent),” it said.
State Bank of India (SBI) has developed a ‘nowcasting model’ with 41 high-frequency indicators associated with industry activity, service activity, and global economy in collaboration with State Bank Institute of Leadership (SBIL), Kolkata.
The report said that going by the estimate of 1.3 per cent GDP growth, India would still be the fifth-fastest-growing country among 25 nations that have released their GDP numbers so far.