Domestic rating agency India Ratings and Research on Tuesday revised downward the country's FY21 GDP growth forecast to (-) 11.8 per cent, lowest in Indian history, from an earlier estimate of (-) 5.3 per cent.
The agency, however, expects the economy to grow at 9.9 per cent in FY22 helped mainly by the weak base of FY21.
“India Rating's FY21 GDP growth forecast of negative 11.8 per cent will be the lowest GDP growth in the Indian history (GDP data is available from FY-1951) and sixth instance of economic contraction, others being in FY-1958, FY-1966, FY-1967, FY-1973 and FY-1980. The previous lowest was negative 5.2 per cent in FY-1980,” the rating agency said in a report.
It estimates economic loss in FY21 to be Rs 18.44 lakh crore.
In the April-June quarter of FY21, GDP grew at (-) 23.9 per cent. It is the first contraction in quarterly GDP data series which have been made available in the public domain since the first quarter of FY-1998.
According to the agency's principal economist Sunil Kumar Sinha, none of the quarters in the current fiscal are going to witness a positive rate of growth.
“For that (positive growth), we will have to wait for the fiscal year 2022. And in FY22, it is not going to happen in the first or the second quarter. It will probably happen in the third or the fourth quarter,” he said while addressing a webinar.
The agency said the economic disruption caused by COVID-19 has had a telling impact, not only on the economy but also on jobs and livelihoods.