India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) says that the aggregate 15.1 per cent yoy fall in Indian merchandise exports in US dollar (USD) terms over the 10 months ended September 2015 was mainly driven by the fall in global commodity prices and sharp weakening of the euro (averaged 17.1% lower yoy).
The volume demand for Indian exports may not have suffered significantly during the period. In fact, export volumes in certain categories such as automobiles continued to increase, added Ind-Ra.
Exports of crude oil and its products (18.3 per cent of FY15 merchandise exports) declined 45.4 per cent yoy in value over December 2014 to September 2015, in line with the fall in crude prices. Similarly, agriculture exports (9.7 per cent) declined 19.1 per cent yoy on account of a decline in the prices of agricultural commodities. The decline in these two categories alone accounted for around three-fourths of the overall decline in merchandise exports.