The fate of H-1B visa holders, their dependents, and those who seek such visas hangs in a delicate balance. Over the past several weeks, the US has announced radical changes, backtracked, issued clarifications, and imposed more dramatic changes. The rules change every few days, or every week. No Indian, who is in the US, including those with green cards and citizenships, is safe. People are so scared that no one wants to write anything untoward against America, even inadvertently, on emails or Whatsapp messages. They do not want to talk about the state of America, or their fears, during phone calls, even if they are encrypted ones. No one is taking chances. Those who have H-1Bs feel that they may be canceled, and they will be asked to go home. Those who expect it keep quiet, and silently wait for the visa dice to roll in their favour. It is all disquiet on the western front.
Two new twists and turns have turned the lives of Indian-Americans topsy-turvy. Now, dependents of H-1B visa holders, who got a different visa to stay in the US, and whose visas were automatically extended, if the principal H-1B holder retained his or her visa, will need to apply afresh. The dependents will need to file new applications, and their visa status will be vetted by the administration. According to the bureaucrats, the idea is to curb and reduce illegal immigrants, who may be staying or overstaying on visas that they do not deserve. In the past, there were concerns about the state and status of dependents. Many felt that they did not deserve to be in the US, as they too gobble up local jobs. Some of the dependents are highly-educated, and get high-paying work. Thus, their numbers needed to be reduced and curtailed.
Similar seems to be the destiny of Indian students in the US. Among the foreign students, they comprise more than a quarter. Most aspire for American jobs after they finish their post-graduations or PhDs. They want to remain in the US to earn enough to pay the education loans, or have sufficient bank balances that will allow them to pursue self-employment, semi-retirement, or start a start-up. Hence, students picked up pre-job American internships, with the knowledge and confidence that they will be absorbed in the job if they do not blunder. Their H-1B visa is almost confirmed. Not any longer. Even such students, who are again on a different visa, will need to apply fresh after they graduate, and they wish to get the H-1B. Nothing is automatic. After worries and anxieties that they face to reach America, grapple with fellowships and bank loans, study seven-days-a-week to keep up with assignments, and land up lucrative potential jobs, they will not be able to heave a sigh of relief. Yet another visa encounter will await them, adding to the stress levels.
All this is on top of the $1,00,000 fee for new H-1B visas. There was collective relief when the US administration clarified that the new high fee will be on new visas, and not on those that are extended. Thus, those in the US, who had to just extend the visa, or transfer it if they changed jobs, stayed unaffected. In some senses, this was a boon for them. Since the Indian employers needed to pay the high fee for a newcomer who was sent from India, experts believed that there would be a churn among those who were already in the US. The demand for them will go up, and they will be able to negotiate better. Thus, they could land the most lucrative and attractive jobs. This was especially true for those with some years of experience in the US, as senior positions would open for them.
There is another possibility. With the changs, and more in the offing, especially those related to the ban on the existing lottery system for H-1B, and a new salary-based system, Indian employers and employees are confused. This will give rise to middlemen, who will pitch themselves as visa lawyers, immigration experts, and capable recruiters, and advise employers and employees alike. The middlemen will find legal and semi-legal shortcuts to make the H-1B visa path slightly easier, and clearly smoother. For example, there is an ongoing concern, both in America and India, that H-1B visa applications are handled by external recruiters, who game the system. This trend can accelerate faster, and result in more illegalities and irregularities. Instead of cleaning up the system, as the American policy-makers want, it will make it rotten. Corruption will increase, as well as cases of cheating aspiring visa applicants.
More importantly, there is another possibility. Some of the brighter students, and more qualified professionals will be fed up by the constant changes, and inconsistent and ever-changing rules. They may decide, as is being urged by Indian experts and policy-makers, to head back home, and try their luck in their native land. Thus, the US will lose the best foreigners, and be saddled with a larger number of average and below-par professionals, who will take up American jobs. For Americans, the result may be the opposite of what they envisage. Mid-level positions will remain crowded, and crowd them out. The most talented, whether Americans, Indians, or Chinese will invariably find a way out. Average Americans will be stuck.