After witnessing an abnormally acute dry season since January to March-end this year, where the rainfall pattern in Odisha resembled to that in drought-prone regions in the country, the good news is precipitation anomaly (meaning deviation of rainfall from normal average rainfall over a long specified period) has been forecast to record an appreciation of around 1-1.5mm/day for the AMJ (April-May-June) season.
Moreover, the respite forecast made by the IMD’s MMCFS (Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System) model for the State of Odisha is for the AMJ season (summer or pre-monsoon) when the north and north-western parts in the country would be exhibiting a positive temperature anomaly to the tune of 1-2.5 degree Celsius (the mean day temperatures to be more than the average during the past three -decades), Odisha would be exhibiting a mean temperature anomaly of 0.5 to (-) 1 degree Celsius (compared to mean day temperature during AMJ season over years, the State to record lower mean day temperature in some parts and 0.5 degree C higher in other parts.
According to MMCFS forecast, districts like Baleswar, parts of Mayurbhanj and Keonjhar adjacent to Baleswar, Puri, Khordha, Ganjam, Kandhamal, Bargarh, Nabarangpur, Rayagada, Koraput and Malkangiri would have lesser mean day temperature during AMJ season this year whereas districts of Kendrapada, Jajpur, Dhenkanal, Angul, Sundargarh,
Balangir, Jharsuguda, Kalahandi and Boudh would have 0.5 degree C more mean day temperature than the average during the season over the last over three decades. This means most parts of interior and western Odisha would witness hottest summer this year, but for some coastal and southern districts the summer wouldn’t be that hot this year.
And when it comes to rainfall anomaly, the districts in the southern-west and some in north-west would receive higher precipitation anomaly of 1.5-2mm/day during the AMJ season whereas the rest of Odisha would record a positive rainfall anomaly of 0.5-1mm/day.
If the MMCFS forecasts hold true for Odisha then there is higher chance of good monsoon rainfall this year as data suggest positive precipitation anomaly in the pre-monsoon season or AMJ season had always resulted into Odisha receiving normal monsoon rainfall, provided the country records a normal monsoon. And if the MMCFS data are believed, the country could receive a normal monsoon this year.
However, Odisha would witness an acute drinking water crisis this summer as the State has gone through an abnormal dry season equivalent to drought-prone regions in the country. As per the data available with the Met department, when against the normal rainfall of around 32 mm during January-February, the State has received only 0.4 mm this year to record a humongous deficit of 99 per cent. Similarly, against normal rainfall of 23.2-mm rainfall during March, the State actually received a mere 0.8 mm to record a high deficit of 96 per cent. By posting such abnormally high rain deficits, an analysis shows that Odisha has matched States like Rajasthan (Saurashtra and Kutch), central Maharashtra, etc.
Significantly, the effect is telling as the underground water level has fallen steeply in around three-fifths of districts in the State. An analysis by the Central Groundwater Board (CGWB) reveals that around 60 per cent of wells across Odisha have recorded a fall in water level from mean of 2007-16.